甲醇日报：供需边际略微改善，中期压力仍存-20251216

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it will take time to break through upward. Considering the shipping data in November, the arrival pressure in December is still large, and it is difficult to significantly reduce inventory before the Spring Festival under the import pressure from December to January [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 10, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 123.44 million tons, a decrease of 11.5 million tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 10.82 million tons, and that in South China decreased by 0.68 million tons. The significant reduction in port inventory was due to factors such as vessel unloading issues and the flow of methanol back to the inland. In terms of imports, due to gas restrictions in Iran, some plants stopped production, and the daily average production capacity dropped to around 15,000 tons. However, 1.25 billion tons were loaded in November, and the expected arrival volume within the year remains high, so the import pressure still exists [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In November, China's industrial added value of large - scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the expected 5% and the previous value of 4.9%. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8% and the previous value of 2.9%. The National Bureau of Statistics stated that in November, the year - on - year increase in consumer prices further expanded, and positive changes continued to emerge. On December 16, CIMC Enric's first mass - production bio - methanol (green methanol) project in China was put into operation in Zhanjiang, Guangdong [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The operating rate of Iranian plants has further decreased, but considering the shipping data in November, the arrival pressure in December is still large. Under the import pressure from December to January, it is difficult to significantly reduce inventory before the Spring Festival [3][4]