铜日报：区域性市场交货压力蔓延，电解铜短期矛盾持续-20251216

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the current situation of the copper market, indicating that the short - term contradictions in electrolytic copper continue due to regional market delivery pressure. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation range of 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks, influenced by factors such as supply - side pressure, weak demand, and a neutral - to - weak macro sentiment [3][63]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - The price of the SHFE main contract on December 15, 2025, was 92,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% from December 12, showing a slight decline. The premium of premium copper increased from 10 yuan/ton on December 12 to 85 yuan/ton on December 15, strengthening the basis [1][58]. - On December 12, 2025, the LME copper positions increased by 3,298 lots to 348,144 lots, and the trading volume expanded, indicating increased market activity [1][59]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: The LME inventory increased to 42,226 tons on December 15, 2025, a 29.67% increase from December 9, indicating increased supply pressure. Recently, BMC Mining listed on the Australian Stock Exchange to advance the KZK project, and Fortescue acquired AltaCopper's Canariaco project, which may increase future copper supply [2][60]. - Demand Side: On December 15, 2025, downstream procurement was weak. The decline in copper prices but still high absolute prices suppressed demand. The acceleration of aluminum - replacing - copper industrialization by Huafeng Aluminum may replace some copper demand [2][61]. - Inventory Side: The LME inventory increased significantly, the COMEX inventory increased to 450,618 short tons on December 12, 2025, and the SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 165,875 tons on December 15, 2025. Overall, the global inventory level increased, reflecting a loose supply - demand situation [2][62]. Price Trend Judgment The driving factors include increased supply pressure from inventory accumulation and potential new projects on the supply side; suppressed demand from weak downstream procurement and the risk of aluminum replacement on the demand side; and a neutral - to - weak macro sentiment. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation range of 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [3][63].