铁矿日报：宏观政策层面干扰退化，钢厂补库尚未开始-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - After the impact of macro - events fades, the trading logic of iron ore will return to fundamentals. With weak rigid demand, inventory accumulation, and a steady recovery in shipments, the iron ore price will fluctuate in the near term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Supply Side - The total global iron ore shipments in this period were 35.925 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24 million tons. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all increased week - on - week. From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 29.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.589 million tons. The arrivals continued to rise, and the impact of previous hurricanes on foreign ore shipments gradually diminished. With the motivation for year - end shipment volume surges, overall shipments will gradually recover steadily [1] Demand Side - This week, the daily average pig iron output was 2.292 million tons (- 0.031 million tons); the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.63% (- 1.92%); the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.92% (- 1.16%); the steel mill profitability rate was 35.93% (- 0.43%). Pig iron output continued to decline seasonally. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils declined more than seasonally. Blast furnaces faced both environmental protection and annual maintenance recently. The daily consumption and inventory of sintered powder ore both declined. There is still an expectation of a continuous decline in pig iron output, and steel mills' demand for raw material replenishment remains at a slow pace [1] Inventory Side - Port inventory continued to increase. This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 161.1147 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2036 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3417 million tons, a decrease of 0.0006 million tons. Port inventory continued to accumulate, the ships at the port gradually unloaded, and the congestion situation improved. Steel mill inventory decreased week - on - week. The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 88.342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5053 million tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.8327 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.018 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.19 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 days. Steel mill inventory continued to decline, daily consumption continued to decrease with the downward trend of pig iron output, the inventory - to - sales ratio weakened, and steel mills were not willing to replenish inventory [2] Profit Side - The landing profit of PB powder was - 13.33 yuan/ton (+ 10.42 yuan/ton), and the landing profit of Super Special powder was - 6.2 yuan/ton (+ 13.02 yuan/ton) [2] Basis and Spread Side - The basis of the 05 contract was 47.5 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread was 22.5 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 21.5 yuan/ton [2]