芳烃日报：纯苯库存压制、苯乙烯供需双弱-20251216

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to tariff - related increased imports from South Korea and port inventory pressure, and the subsequent inventory accumulation will gradually slow down. The styrene market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory depletion in the fourth - quarter but a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year [1][2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis Pure Benzene - Downstream production profits: Caprolactam production profit is - 330 yuan/ton (+0), phenol - acetone production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 611 yuan/ton (- 237), and adipic acid production profit is - 1075 yuan/ton (+0). - Downstream operating rates: Caprolactam operating rate is 74.57% (- 4.58%), phenol operating rate is 79.50% (- 2.50%), aniline operating rate is 75.94% (- 1.29%), and adipic acid operating rate is 59.20% (- 0.80%). - Market situation: Due to tariff issues, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have increased, with concentrated arrivals of imports and obvious port inventory pressure, presenting a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1] Styrene - Production and utilization rate: From December 5th to 11th, China's styrene factory's overall output was 33.88 tons, a decrease of 1.05% from the previous period; the factory's capacity utilization rate was 68.11%, a decrease of 0.74% month - on - month. - Downstream consumption: The consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS in styrene downstream was 27.24 tons, a decrease of 0.73% month - on - month. - Inventory: Styrene factory inventory was 17.60 tons, a decrease of 0.11% from last week. As of December 8th, the styrene inventory in East China ports was 14.68 tons, a decrease of 8.59% from last week; the inventory in South China ports was 2.3 tons, an increase of 142.11% from last week. - Profit: As of December 10th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 140 yuan/ton. As of December 12th, the integrated profit of styrene was 425.46 yuan/ton. - Market situation: There were many overhauls in the fourth quarter, with port inventory depletion, but there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [2] Macroeconomic Analysis - Key events: China's industrial added value above designated size in November increased by 4.8% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 5% and a previous value of 4.90%. China's total retail sales of consumer goods in November increased by 1.3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.8% and a previous value of 2.90%. - Exchange rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar reached a high of 7.0500, the first time since October 9, 2024. The offshore RMB against the US dollar reached a high of 7.046 on December 15th, a new high since early October 2024. - Consumption: In November, the year - on - year increase in consumer prices further expanded, and positive changes continued to appear. The next stage should focus on promoting consumption [3][4] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene: Affected by inventory pressure from concentrated imports, it shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with weak market sentiment. It is in a weak pattern, and inventory data needs continuous attention. - Styrene: With low operating rates and inventory depletion, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [5]