每日核心期货品种分析-20251216

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on December 16, most domestic futures main contracts declined Palladium rose over 4%, platinum and PVC rose over 2%, and polysilicon, LPG, coke, and soda ash rose over 1% On the downside, Shanghai tin fell over 3%, Shanghai nickel, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and rapeseed oil fell over 2%, and stainless steel, sugar, Shanghai zinc, and SC crude oil fell over 1% [6][7] 2. Core Views - The overall supply of the commodities market is complex, with different factors affecting each commodity The market is generally cautious, and the price trends of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and seasonal factors [9][11][12] 3. Commodity Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper prices fell from high levels The implementation of Document 770 may increase scrap copper supply SMM expects December electrolytic copper production to increase by 6 57 million tons month-on-month The copper foil sector remains highly prosperous, while copper rod and tube sectors are under pressure Copper prices are supported by new energy vehicle demand and are unlikely to fall significantly [9] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, showing strength within the day Although production growth is slowing, December production is expected to increase by about 3% There is a supply-demand gap, and downstream demand supports prices However, caution is needed as the peak season nears its end and purchase tax policies change [10][11] Crude Oil - OPEC+ will maintain overall oil production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntary cut countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026 The demand peak season has ended, and the market is in a supply surplus situation with geopolitical uncertainties affecting prices Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [12] Asphalt - The asphalt supply is decreasing, with the December production forecast to decline The downstream demand is weakening due to factors such as funds and weather The price is expected to fluctuate [14] PP - The PP downstream开工率 is at a relatively low level in the same period, and the supply is increasing with new capacity The demand is weakening at the end of the peak season The upward space is limited, and the L-PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16] Plastic - The plastic开工率 has decreased, and the downstream demand is weakening with the exit of the agricultural film peak season The supply is increasing with new capacity The upward space is limited, and the L-PP spread is expected to narrow [17] PVC - The PVC开工率 is slightly decreasing, and the downstream demand is poor The export is increasing at the cost of price reduction, and the inventory pressure is high The upward space is limited in the traditional demand off-season [18][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low but rose within the day The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak However, with the end of the year approaching, there may be winter storage demand The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [20] Urea - The urea futures price fluctuated slightly The supply is affected by gas restrictions, and the demand is in the off-season but has some resilience The inventory is expected to continue to decline [21][22]