焦炭日报：短期震荡偏强运行-20251216

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating The report anticipates that coke will mainly experience short - term volatile and upward movement [3]. 2) Core Viewpoint Considering that coke port inventories are at a relatively high level, independent coking enterprises' inventories continue to accumulate, and steel mills' coke inventories have reached a medium level; steel mill开工率 declines seasonally and profits are under continuous pressure, leading to a slightly loose supply - demand situation for coke. However, the winter storage and replenishment needs of coking plants and steel mills are gradually emerging, combined with the warming macro - atmosphere. Overall, coke is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a.行情分析 - Coke Production: As of December 12, for all independent coking enterprises, the capacity utilization rate was 73.16% with a daily output of 63.98 tons. For 247 domestic steel mills, the daily coke output was 46.61 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.95% [1]. - Coke Inventory: Steel mills' coke inventory increased by 10 tons to 635.28 tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory increased by 10.88 tons to 87.32 tons (reaching a five - month high), port inventory was 181.2 tons (a year - on - year increase of 27%), and the comprehensive coke inventory was 903.8 tons (an increase of 20.8 tons) [1]. - Profit: The average profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 44 yuan/ton. In Shanxi, Shandong, and Hebei, the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke was 61 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 89 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream Demand: As the seasonal off - season deepens, the supply and demand in the steel market both decrease. The profitability of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.43 percentage points to 35.93%. The blast furnace operating rate and blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.16% to 85.92%, and the daily hot metal output decreased by 3.1 tons to 229.2 tons compared with last week (3.27 tons less than last year) [1]. b. Upstream Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic coal mine production has slightly shrunk, and overall supply remains at a relatively low level. However, due to the high - level import coal clearance volume, the total coking coal supply is increasing marginally. Although there is some restocking behavior in the market recently, downstream procurement remains cautious, and coal mine inventories continue to accumulate, suppressing prices. After the second round of coke price cuts, attention should be paid to the release of downstream restocking and speculative demand [2]. c.期现行情 - Futures Market: The 05 coke contract opened at 1661, rose 0.48% during the day, closed at 1670, and increased its position by 514 lots [3]. - Spot Market: The spot market for coke at ports remained stable, and the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1430 [4]. - News: The Indonesian government plans to impose a 1% - 5% tariff on coal exports starting from 2026. The Yimin Coal Mine in Ejin Horo Banner was ordered to suspend production for rectification for two days [4].