Nvidia(US:NVDA) Waton Financial·2025-12-16 12:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong growth in its financial performance, with significant increases in key financial metrics [4][10] - The data center business is the primary driver of revenue, benefiting from the AI boom and establishing a competitive moat through its CUDA ecosystem [12][17] - The company faces challenges including reliance on data center revenue, geopolitical risks affecting the Chinese market, and pressure on profit margins [6][16][17] Financial Performance - For Q3 of fiscal year 2026, total revenue reached $57,006 million, a year-over-year increase of 62.49% [4][10] - Gross profit was $102,400 million, with a gross margin of 69.26%, reflecting an 8.7% year-over-year decline [4][10] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was $31,910 million, up 65.26% year-over-year, with diluted earnings per share of $3.16, a 52.66% increase [4][10] Business Development - The company secured $500 billion in chip orders for 2025 and 2026, including the upcoming production of the new Rubin chip [5] - Advanced chips are expected to generate $500 billion in revenue over the next few quarters [5] - The sales of Blackwell architecture products exceeded expectations, with cloud GPUs sold out [5] - The AI ecosystem is rapidly expanding, with more foundational model manufacturers and AI startups emerging across various industries and countries [5][15] Revenue Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025 is $176,171 million, representing a 35% growth [6] - Revenue growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are expected to be 25% and 20%, respectively [6] - The company’s operating profit margin is forecasted to be 59.8% for 2025 [6] Market Analysis - The company is expected to see a decline in its market share in China, from 66% in 2024 to 54% in 2025, due to the rise of domestic AI chip manufacturers [13][14] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with local companies developing their ecosystems, potentially impacting the company's pricing power [14] Summary - The company has shown robust growth in Q3 of fiscal year 2026, with revenue and net profit both exceeding 60% year-over-year growth, primarily driven by the data center business [17] - The company has established a strong competitive position in AI training and inference through its comprehensive capabilities and CUDA ecosystem [17] - However, it faces challenges such as a heavy reliance on data center revenue, geopolitical risks, and pressure on profit margins, which could impact future growth [17]