瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - After entering December, the reserve demand has slowed down, but there is still short - term replenishment demand. The demand for urea from the compound fertilizer industry is relatively strong, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to rise steadily. The continuous demand from the high - operating compound fertilizer industry, appropriate replenishment of reserve demand, and the fulfillment of some export orders have led to a continuous decline in urea factory inventories last week. In the short term, the inventories may continue to decline slightly. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1720 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1630 yuan/ton, with a change of 1; the 1 - 5 spread is - 43 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6518. The main contract's open interest is 81993 lots, a decrease of 15767 lots, and the net position of the top 20 is - 14734. The exchange warehouse receipts are 11214, a decrease of 31 [2] 3.2现货市场 - In the spot market, the prices in Hebei, Shandong are unchanged at 1710 yuan/ton and 1700 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui decreased by 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1670 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports are 347.5 dollars/ton and 387.5 dollars/ton respectively, with no change [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, an increase of 0.02%. The daily urea output is 197900 tons, with no change. The urea export volume is 120 million tons, a decrease of 17. The monthly urea output is 6000330 tons, an increase of 129060 tons [2] 3.4下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.62%, an increase of 0.09%. The melamine operating rate is 61.86%, an increase of 0.2%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 137 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, an increase of 75.38 million tons. The weekly output of melamine is 32200 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons from last week, a 4.36% decrease. As of December 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons, a 17.14% increase. As of December 11, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 138.54 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons, a 0.02% increase [2] 3.6提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]