瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251216

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term total inventory of domestic methanol producers may accumulate due to a slight decline in inland enterprise inventory and abundant supply in the main production areas. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, and the future situation of foreign vessel unloading should be continuously monitored. The MTO industry's operating rate is expected to decline. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2070 - 2170 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2129 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 price difference is - 50 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 896,627 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 526,136 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 146,999 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,435, with a week - on - week decrease of 188 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2095 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 1960 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between the East and the Northwest is 135 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 34 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese ports is 245 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, both unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 254 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese ports and Southeast Asia is - 72 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.04 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 83.06 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.82 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 40.38 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68 tons. The methanol import profit is 7.52 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 27.08 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 89.81%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.72 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 41.49%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 73.89%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.27 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 69.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 89.95%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 931 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.91%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.04%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 0.55%, with a week - on - week decrease of 17.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.94%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of December 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample producers was 35.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 tons or 2.40%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 20.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.22 tons or 13.45%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 123.44 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from the previous period. As of December 11, the overall domestic methanol output increased, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.68% [2]