瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251216

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The new sugar - making season is approaching its peak in the domestic market, with continuous increase in supply, weakening spot prices, and lack of bullish drivers. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5133 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 481,426 lots, up 51,928 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 611, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 79,005 lots, down 10,879 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1490, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4127 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4149 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5231 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5260 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning is 5340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou is 5400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative sugar production in the country is 1116.21 million tons, up 4.48 million tons; the cumulative sales of sugar in Guangxi is 237.4 million tons, down 593.35 million tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil is 330.2 million tons, down 90.3 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1170 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1148 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar is 66 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan; for Thai sugar is 37 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 million tons, up 20 million tons; the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, up 74 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, up 34.39 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1096.2 million tons, down 495.5 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.56%, up 0.6%; that of at - the - money put options is 8.6%, up 0.61%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.53%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.3%, unchanged [2] Industry News - Brazil exported 1.6008 billion tons of sugar in the first two weeks of December, with a daily average of 160 thousand tons, a 19% increase compared to the daily average of December last year. The total export volume in December last year was 2.8337 billion tons. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.15 cents or 1.0% to settle at 14.95 cents per pound due to the prospect of increased supply [2] Tip for Attention - As of now, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537.5 thousand tons, 29 thousand tons less than last year. 29 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 10 more than last year, and more than half of the sugar mills have started production [2]