瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints Corn - The US corn is in the peak export season with high short - term supply pressure. The global and US corn supply - demand is relatively loose, suppressing international corn prices. However, the USDA's downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US corn ending inventory forecast supports US corn prices [2]. - In the domestic Northeast region, the increased acquisition by reserve depots in December supports the market bottom. But high prices limit the purchasing enthusiasm of grain - using enterprises, and the release of grain sources due to the concerns of growers and traders leads to a price correction. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the price fluctuates slightly due to the changes in the selling enthusiasm of growers and the influence of policy auction news [2]. - The corn futures price has fallen from the high level recently after the previous over - expected rise. It has high short - term volatility, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Corn Starch - With the increase in the supply of new - season corn, the industry operating rate has continuously recovered, increasing the supply - side pressure. However, the downstream demand is good, and the inventory of corn starch enterprises has decreased. The starch futures price has fallen synchronously with corn, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2220 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract): 2502 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn monthly spread (1 - 5): - 18 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 8 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 444922 lots, down 46263 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 137793 lots, down 8866 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 103390 lots for corn, - 33318 lots for corn starch, up 1952 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 56230 lots for yellow corn, 2500 lots for corn starch [2]. - CS - C spread of the main contract: 329 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 439.5 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly): 1616139 contracts, up 13001 contracts [2]. - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions: 120900 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2353.92 yuan/ton, down 1.96 yuan/ton; factory quotation of corn starch in Changchun: 2590 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2290 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; factory quotation of corn starch in Weifang: 2800 yuan/ton [2]. - CIF price of imported corn: 2122.58 yuan/ton, down 18.49 yuan/ton; factory quotation of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2730 yuan/ton [2]. - International freight of imported corn: 50 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton; basis of the main corn starch contract: 77 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 425.53 million hectares; forecasted yield: 36.44 million tons, up 0.55 million tons [2]. - Forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil: 131 million hectares; forecasted yield: 22.6 million tons [2]. - Forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina: 53 million hectares; forecasted yield: 7.5 million tons [2]. - Forecasted sown area of corn in China: 295 million hectares; forecasted yield: 44.3 million tons [2]. - Forecasted yield of corn in Ukraine: 32 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports: 31.5 million tons, down 20.2 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory: 294 million tons, up 18.6 million tons [2]. - Corn inventory in northern ports: 152 million tons, down 11 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises: 104.9 million tons, down 0.5 million tons [2]. - Monthly import volume of corn: 36 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 19170 tons, up 6390 tons [2]. - Monthly output of feed: 2957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons; processing profit of corn starch in Shandong: 6 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - Inventory days of sample feed corn: 29.53 days, up 0.86 days; processing profit of corn starch in Hebei: 82 yuan/ton [2]. - Deep - processing corn consumption: 141.67 million tons, down 0.09 million tons; processing profit of corn starch in Jilin: - 54 yuan/ton [2]. - Operating rate of alcohol enterprises: 68.22%, down 2.06 percentage points; operating rate of starch enterprises: 62.84%, up 1.18 percentage points [2]. Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 11.92%, up 0.27 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 9.48%, up 0.09 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 8.59%, down 7.1 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn: 8.58%, down 7.11 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of December 11, the sowing of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season has ended, and the focus is on weather and crop growth [2]. - In the week ending December 11, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,582,995 tons, compared with the revised 1,740,898 tons last week and 1,153,344 tons in the same period last year [2].