热卷日报：震荡偏强-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating with an upward bias" for the hot-rolled coil industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of hot-rolled coils is expected to continue to decline, providing support, and the stabilization of furnace materials has increased cost support. The market has digested the off-season demand and export license management news. With positive macro expectations, winter storage demand is expected to start, but attention should be paid to whether the inventory pressure can be relieved. The price of hot-rolled coils is expected to continue to oscillate with an upward bias [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 Review - The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures oscillated with an upward bias during the day, closing at 3254 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.65%. It has shown a stable recovery trend in the past two trading days [1] - The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3270 yuan/ton [2] - The basis between futures and spot was 24 yuan, close to flat water [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of December 11, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 5.6 tons week-on-week to 308.71 tons, and decreased by 11.41 tons year-on-year. Recent production has been continuously declining, and steel mills may have the expectation of switching production to rebar, which may marginally reduce the supply of hot-rolled coils [4] - Demand: The weekly apparent consumption decreased by 2.89 tons week-on-week to 311.97 tons, and decreased by 5.02 tons year-on-year. Domestic manufacturing demand is weak, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and a weak willingness to stock up actively. Export demand is good, sharing the domestic supply pressure and providing support [4] - Inventory: The total inventory decreased by 3.26 tons week-on-week to 397.09 tons (social inventory decreased by 7.37 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 4.11 tons). The total inventory is at a four-year high, and inventory pressure continues to accumulate. Attention should be paid to the further inventory reduction speed [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The expectation of supply reduction has increased, winter storage demand has started, there is policy support (such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" and infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal have increased cost support [5] - Bearish factors: The demand has weakened seasonally, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]