螺纹日报：震荡偏强-20251216

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the rebar market is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1][6] Core Viewpoint - The current rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the decline in production, the rise in furnace materials, and inventory destocking provide downside support. After the market has digested the off - season demand and the news of steel export licenses, it is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation and run oscillating with a bullish bias in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start node of winter storage demand [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main rebar contract oscillated and rose during the day, closing at 3,081 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.55%. The trading volume was 778,715 lots, showing a stabilizing and rebounding trend in the past two trading days [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 199 yuan/ton to the spot price, which may support the futures price to some extent [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week ending December 11, rebar production decreased by 105,300 tons week - on - week to 1.7878 million tons, and decreased by 392,900 tons year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.63%, down 1.53 percentage points week - on - week and 1.92% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, down 0.43% from the previous week, and the daily average hot metal output decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons. The decline in production was mainly due to blast furnace maintenance and loss - induced production cuts [2] - Demand side: Demand entered the traditional off - season. As of the week ending December 11, the apparent consumption decreased by 138,900 tons week - on - week to 2.0309 million tons, and decreased by 345,700 tons year - on - year. The spot market transactions were mainly for rigid procurement, and the speculative demand was low [2] - Inventory side: As of the week ending December 11, the total inventory decreased by 243,100 tons week - on - week to 4.795 million tons, with the social inventory decreasing by 224,300 tons and the steel mill inventory slightly decreasing by 18,800 tons. The destocking of social inventory showed the current demand resilience, and the overall inventory pressure was still controllable [2] Macroeconomic aspect - The Central Economic Work Conference will flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It will focus on stabilizing the real estate market, and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December was in line with expectations. The macroeconomic outlook is moderately positive [3] Cost aspect - The futures prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke stabilized and rebounded, enhancing the cost support [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Continuous contraction of supply, continued inventory destocking, policy expectations, large discount on the futures market providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and the rebound of coking coal and coke enhancing cost support [5] - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real estate data [5]