基于区域和产品结构的分析：2026年出口：驱动与增速

Trade Environment - The trade environment is stabilizing as US-China relations improve, with significant agreements reached during recent talks[5] - Major economies in Europe and the US are still in a phase of fiscal expansion and monetary easing, with the IMF predicting stable economic growth in developed economies[8][9] Export Growth Analysis - Global trade growth is expected to slow down due to high base effects from "export grabbing" and increased tariff rates, with a projected growth rate of 0-1% for exports in 2026[2] - Exports to the US and ASEAN may exhibit a "seesaw" effect, with significant contributions from transshipment trade to ASEAN exports this year[2] - Africa is identified as the fastest-growing export region, driven by demand for vehicles, ships, and consumer electronics[2] Economic Forecasts - The IMF forecasts that global trade volume growth will decline from approximately 3.7% in 2025 to 2.0% in 2026, with China's export volume growth expected to drop from 9.8% to 1.9%[20][21] - The US economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see slight declines in growth rates[9][8] Currency and Pricing - The RMB is anticipated to maintain a "stable yet slightly strong" trend, with export prices expected to decline marginally by around 2%[2] - The IMF predicts a decrease in global trade prices from 0.6% in 2025 to 0.1% in 2026, influenced by falling oil prices and domestic inflationary pressures[2] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include geopolitical conflicts and unexpected macroeconomic fluctuations that could impact trade dynamics[2]