钢材：出口许可证管理范围扩大，钢价延续弱势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price continues to be weak as the scope of export license management for steel products expands [1] - The five major steel products continue to reduce production this week, but the reduction speed slows down. The iron - water output continues to decline, and the total steel inventory continues to decrease. The apparent demand for steel accelerates to decline seasonally. In the short term, the steel price remains weakly volatile with raw materials, and the performance is weaker than in November. The implementation of export license management for some steel products is expected to have a negative impact on steel exports [7] - The trading strategy suggests a unilateral weak - oscillating trend, recommends short - selling the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices for arbitrage, and advises to wait and see for options [9] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - Supply: This week, the small - sample production of rebar is 178.78 tons (-10.53), and that of hot - rolled coil is 308.71 tons (-5.6). The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 229.2 tons (-3.1), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 34.5% (+1.4). The cost of electric - arc furnaces has increased slightly, and the profit has slightly declined, but there is still room for production increase. The long - process steel profit remains slightly profitable, and the iron - water output continues to decline with limited downward space [4] - Demand: This week, the small - sample apparent demand for rebar is 203.09 tons (-13.89), and that for hot - rolled coil is 311.97 tons (-2.89). The steel demand shows a seasonal decline, but the building materials demand performs well, and the hot - rolled coil export and manufacturing demand are supported. The real - estate data is weak, and the manufacturing PMI shows signs of recovery. The automobile production and export maintain strong growth, and the production schedule reduction of three major white - goods narrows [4] - Inventory: The total inventory of rebar decreases by 24.31 tons (factory inventory - 1.88 tons, social inventory - 22.43 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil decreases by 3.26 tons (factory inventory + 4.11 tons, social inventory - 7.37 tons) [4] - Outlook: It is expected that the iron - water output will continue to decline next week, but the blast - furnace profit will recover. The coal - coke price drops, driving the steel price down. However, the steel cost is supported. The short - term steel price remains weakly volatile, and the implementation of export license management for steel products may have a negative impact on exports [7] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral, weak - oscillating trend; Arbitrage, short - sell the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices; Options, wait and see [9] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - Spot Price: The rebar summary price in Shanghai is 3270 yuan (-30), and in Beijing is 3140 yuan (-70). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai is 3270 yuan (-40), and in Tianjin is 3200 yuan (-40) [13] - Profit: The long - process steel profit maintains a small profit. The short - process steel profit: the flat - rate electricity profit of East China electric - arc furnaces is -72.76 yuan (-33.5), and the off - peak electricity profit is 92 yuan (-34) [31] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - Overseas: The US initial jobless claims surge to 23.6 million, and the US manufacturing continues to recover. The euro - zone manufacturing PMI drops to 49.6 [4] - Domestic: The Politburo meeting analyzes the economic work in 2026. In November, China's CPI rises by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI drops by 2.2% year - on - year. The Central Economic Work Conference sets the tone for next year's economic work. In October, the new social financing drops significantly, and from January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment is -1.70%. The real - estate data is weak [34][42] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - Supply: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 229.3 tons (-2.38), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 34.5% (+1.4). The small - sample production of rebar is 178.78 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.53 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil is 308.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.6 tons [60][66] - Demand: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar is 203.09 tons (a lunar - calendar year - on - year decrease of 14.9%), a week - on - week decrease of 13.89 tons, and that for hot - rolled coil is 311.97 tons (a lunar - calendar year - on - year decrease of 0.07%), a week - on - week decrease of 2.89 tons. The building materials demand is okay, and the manufacturing demand supports the cold - rolled steel. The steel export remains resilient [69][81] - Inventory: The total steel inventory decreases. The rebar inventory decreases, with the factory inventory decreasing by 1.88 tons and the social inventory decreasing by 22.43 tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreases by 3.26 tons, with the factory inventory increasing by 4.11 tons and the social inventory decreasing by 7.37 tons [4]