铁水持续回落，矿价偏空对待

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a bearish approach for unilateral trading, and suggests waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options trading [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market sentiment is fluctuating, but the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate the medium - term iron ore price. Since the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of domestic iron elements has remained loose, and the fundamentals of iron ore have changed significantly. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly operate at a high level with a downward trend [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Logic Analysis: Since December, global iron ore shipments have continued to increase steadily. The supply of domestic iron ore remains in a loose pattern. The domestic terminal steel demand has declined rapidly since the third quarter and is unlikely to improve significantly in the near future. Overseas demand for iron ore maintains high growth. Overall, the domestic steel demand decline is expected to lead the medium - term iron ore price, and the fundamentals of iron ore have changed [3] - Trading Strategy: Adopt a bearish approach for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3] Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - Global Iron Ore Shipment: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%/40 million tons. The supply of the four major global mines has increased by over 10 million tons year - on - year. In November, China imported 110.54 million tons of iron ore, and the cumulative import from January to November was 1.141 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 17 million tons [15] - Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment: The global shipment of non - mainstream iron ore has been at a high level year - on - year. The weekly average shipment of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore is 5.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%/24 million tons [17] - Port Inventory: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased slightly, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic total inventory of imported iron ore remained basically flat. Since September, the total domestic iron element inventory has increased by over 12 million tons, and the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore have weakened [27] Demand Side - Domestic Demand: Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic iron ore demand has shown a mixed trend. Iron water and crude steel production have increased year - on - year, but the apparent demand for building materials and non - building materials has decreased year - on - year. The manufacturing steel demand has shifted from year - on - year growth to negative growth [29] - Overseas Demand: From January to October, overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.3%/27 million tons year - on - year. The overseas Indian crude steel production increased by 10%/12.6 million tons from January to October, and is expected to contribute an increment of 15 million tons for the whole year [32] Price and Spread - Port Price: The report presents the price trends of 62% Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder, and other products, as well as the spread between different grades of powder [37] - Port Profit: The report shows the import profit trends of PB powder, Carajas fines, and other products [39] - Domestic and Overseas Price Difference: It includes the price difference between SGX and DCE iron ore futures, and the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore [45] - Basis and Inter - period Spread: The report presents the basis of the optimal deliverable against different contracts and the inter - period spreads [47]