社零数据点评：11月社零+1.3%，政策加码拉动内需回暖

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in domestic demand driven by policy support, particularly in the real estate sector, which is expected to stabilize [2][3] - The consumer goods sector, particularly home furnishings and cosmetics, is anticipated to benefit from increased consumption policies and a recovering real estate market [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Data - In November 2025, the total retail sales growth was +1.3%, lower than the expected +2.9%. Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, retail sales increased by +4.0% year-on-year [1][13] - Specific categories showed varied performance: furniture sales decreased by -3.8%, while cultural office supplies and cosmetics grew by +11.7% and +6.1%, respectively [1][11] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with new housing starts, completions, and sales all showing significant year-on-year declines in November 2025, at -26.8%, -28.0%, and -19.1%, respectively [2][32] - However, there are signs of improvement in the month-on-month data, indicating potential stabilization in the market [2] Home Furnishings - The home furnishings sector is expected to gain momentum due to ongoing policy support and a recovering real estate market, which will stimulate demand for home upgrades [3][9] Cosmetics - The cosmetics sector is experiencing a recovery, with retail sales for January to November 2025 reaching 428.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +4.8%. November sales alone were 46.8 billion yuan, up +6.1% year-on-year [4][24] Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector saw retail sales of 341.4 billion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a +13.5% year-on-year increase. November sales were 29.2 billion yuan, up +8.5% year-on-year, driven by rising gold prices [8][28] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the home furnishings sector include Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and others, which are expected to outperform due to their strong brand and market position [9] - In the cosmetics sector, domestic brands like Runben and others are highlighted for their growth potential through diversified product strategies [9]