Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-16 15:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's high-end strategy and the integration of its ecosystem across vehicles and home appliances provide stronger resilience compared to previous storage cycles [4] - The company has reported slightly better-than-expected earnings for Q3 2025, with revenue of 113.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22% [6] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 reached 11.3 billion RMB, up 81% year-on-year [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 271 billion RMB - 2024: 366 billion RMB - 2025E: 476 billion RMB - 2026E: 565 billion RMB - 2027E: 679 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at -3% for 2023, 35% for 2024, 30% for 2025, 19% for 2026, and 20% for 2027 [5] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2025E: 43.5 billion RMB - 2026E: 44.5 billion RMB - 2027E: 58.4 billion RMB - Corresponding year-on-year growth rates for net profit are 59% for 2025, 2% for 2026, and 31% for 2027 [5][6] Business Segment Performance - Smartphone segment: - Q3 2025 revenue of 460 billion RMB, with an average selling price (ASP) of 1,063 RMB per unit [6] - The company aims to ship 170 million units in 2025, with a slight adjustment in forecasts due to market conditions [6] - IoT segment: - Q3 2025 revenue of 27.6 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 23.9% [6] - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 29% for 2025 [6] - Internet services: - Q3 2025 revenue of 9.4 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 76.9% [6] - Electric vehicle (EV) segment: - Q3 2025 revenue of 29 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 25.5% and a delivery target of 400,000 units for 2025 [6]