——2025年1-11月统计局房地产数据点评：基本面延续弱势表现，政策阈值逐步临近

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [9] Core Insights - The real estate industry continues to show weak fundamentals, with significant year-on-year declines in sales and construction activities. The central economic work conference emphasizes "controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply," indicating that policy thresholds are approaching, which may open up policy windows for intervention [2][12] - In November 2025, the sales volume and area of commercial housing decreased by 25.1% and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting ongoing pressure from high bases and declining market sentiment. The report anticipates that December will also face significant year-on-year pressure [12][12] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on quality real estate companies with low inventory, strong regional presence, and product strength, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [2][12] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national commercial housing sales amount and area decreased by 11.1% and 7.8% year-on-year, respectively. November saw a more pronounced decline, with sales amount and area down by 25.1% and 17.3% [12][12] - The average sales price of new homes in November was 9,097 yuan per square meter, down 9.5% year-on-year, while the average price of residential properties fell by 11.1% [12][12] Construction Activity - New construction area in the first eleven months of 2025 decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, with November's decline at 27.6%. The report suggests that the construction sector may have entered an oversold state [12][12] - The completed construction area also saw a decline of 18.0% year-on-year, with November's figure down 25.5% [12][12] Investment Trends - The total funds available to real estate companies decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, with November seeing a sharp decline of 32.5%. This includes a 10.4% drop in domestic loans and a 30.7% decrease in self-raised funds [12][12] - Real estate development investment completed in the first eleven months of 2025 fell by 15.9% year-on-year, with November's investment down 30.3% [12][12] Market Outlook - The report forecasts that the real estate industry will remain in an adjustment phase throughout 2025, with an expected annual sales decline of around 10% and construction activity down by approximately 20% [12][12]