五矿期货农产品早报-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybeans and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range as the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but they are entering the destocking season, providing some support [2][3]. - For oils, the recent data is bearish. Although palm oil production has exceeded expectations this year, the situation of inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [5][7]. - Regarding sugar, the estimated increase in sugar production in major producing countries in the new crushing season has led to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the global supply - demand relationship. International sugar prices may not improve much until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [10][11]. - In the case of cotton, the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low. Although there is some demand and the previous price decline has digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest, the news of subsidy policy adjustment is unconfirmed and there is hedging pressure [13][14]. - For eggs, the near - term contracts are mainly in a process of squeezing the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contracts have the expectation of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. - As for pigs, the spot market is warming up, but the near - term contracts' rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is advisable to sell after the consumption rebound. The long - term contracts have a low valuation and the theme of capacity reduction, so attention should be paid to the lower support [20][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Market Information: Overnight CBOT soybeans closed down. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday, with low trading volume but good pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.0445 million tons, slightly higher than last week. Last week, domestic soybeans and soybean meal both destocked, but the inventory is still high year - on - year. Brazilian and Argentine main producing areas are expected to have more rainfall, and the global soybeans' annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still high [2]. - Strategy: The bottom of soybean import costs may have appeared, but the upward space needs greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but they are entering the destocking season. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [3]. Oils - Market Information: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.87% in the first ten days of December and decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. Ship - shipping agency data indicates a 15.89% - 16.37% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 15 days of December. As of November 30, NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory reached a seven - month high. On Tuesday, domestic oils fell due to poor palm oil export data and high - frequency production [5]. - Strategy: This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, and poor export data has suppressed the market. However, the situation of inventory accumulation may reverse. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [6][7]. Sugar - Market Information: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. Spot sugar prices in various regions also declined. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, and Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 crushing season but may decrease in the 2026/27 season. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports has decreased [9][10]. - Strategy: The estimated increase in sugar production in major producing countries in the new crushing season has led to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the global supply - demand relationship. International sugar prices may not improve much until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [11]. Cotton - Market Information: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices first rose and then fell. The spot price index increased, and the basis widened. As of December 12, the spinning mill's operating rate remained flat week - on - week, and the national commercial cotton inventory increased year - on - year. The global cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 year has been slightly adjusted [13]. - Strategy: The probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low. Although there is some demand and the previous price decline has digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest, the news of subsidy policy adjustment is unconfirmed and there is hedging pressure [14]. Eggs - Market Information: Yesterday, most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few areas having narrow adjustments. Supply was stable, market sales improved slightly, and demand increased. Short - term egg prices are expected to be mostly stable, with a few areas showing a slight upward trend [16][17]. - Strategy: The near - term contracts are mainly in a process of squeezing the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contracts have the expectation of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. Pigs - Market Information: Yesterday, domestic pig prices fluctuated slightly. Most farmers may still be on the sidelines, and the price trend varies by region [20]. - Strategy: The spot market is warming up, but the near - term contracts' rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is advisable to sell after the consumption rebound. The long - term contracts have a low valuation and the theme of capacity reduction, so attention should be paid to the lower support [21].