能源化工日报-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and await verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [2][3] - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port, and the supply is at a high level. The fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [5][6] - For urea, the supply - demand situation has improved. There is support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices [8][9][10] - For rubber, adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term operations, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [11][12] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there is a rebound driven by sentiment, but in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [12][13][14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [16][17] - For polyethylene, the valuation has limited downward space, but there is pressure from high - level warehouse receipts. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [19][20] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [22][23] - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [25][26] - For PTA, the processing fee may be under pressure later. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on expected trading [27][28][29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. Be wary of the rebound risk caused by an increase in unexpected maintenance [30][31] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 6.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.51%, at 430.50 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures such as high - sulfur fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil also declined. China's weekly crude oil data showed inventory accumulation in various types of oil [2] - Strategy View: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and await verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [3] Methanol - Market Information: Regional spot prices in different areas had different changes. The main futures contract rose by 55 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, with a basis of +31. MTO profit was - 131 yuan [5] - Strategy View: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port, and the supply is at a high level. The fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in some areas declined, and the overall basis was reported at 40 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose by 1 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton [8] - Strategy View: The supply - demand situation has improved. There is support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices [9][10] Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices fluctuated and consolidated. The exchange's RU inventory warrants were low, and there was buying demand for winter storage. There were different views from the long and short sides. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises had different changes, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [11] - Strategy View: Adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term operations, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12] PVC - Market Information: The PVC01 contract rose by 84 yuan to 4399 yuan, and the spot price and basis had corresponding changes. The overall operating rate and downstream operating rate declined, and the inventory increased [12] - Strategy View: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there is a rebound driven by sentiment, but in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [13][14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets had different changes, and indicators such as the basis, profit, and inventory also had corresponding changes [16] - Strategy View: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17] Polyethylene - Market Information: The main futures contract price of polyethylene declined, and the spot price also declined. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory had different changes, and the downstream operating rate declined [19] - Strategy View: The valuation has limited downward space, but there is pressure from high - level warehouse receipts. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20] Polypropylene - Market Information: The main futures contract price of polypropylene rose, and the spot price declined. The upstream operating rate increased, the inventory had different changes, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [22] - Strategy View: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [23] PX - Market Information: The PX01 contract declined, and indicators such as the basis, load, and inventory had corresponding changes [25] - Strategy View: It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [26] PTA - Market Information: The PTA01 contract declined, and indicators such as the basis, load, inventory, and processing fee had corresponding changes [27] - Strategy View: The processing fee may be under pressure later. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on expected trading [28][29] Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG01 contract rose, and indicators such as the basis, supply - side load, downstream load, inventory, and profit had corresponding changes [30] - Strategy View: The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. Be wary of the rebound risk caused by an increase in unexpected maintenance [31]