金信期货日刊：纯碱价格上涨，短多反弹对待？-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of soda ash prices may be oscillating and strengthening, while the medium - to - long - term trend remains bearish. For stock index futures, short - term selling on rallies is recommended. Gold shows signs of upward movement and long positions can be considered. Iron ore should be treated with a wide - range oscillation strategy. Glass is expected to be oscillating and bearish. For palm oil, short opportunities should be grasped. Pulp demand is expected to improve overall, and an oscillating trend is predicted [3][4][6][7][10][12][13][16][17][18][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash - On December 16, the main continuous price of soda ash was reported at 1,170 yuan/ton. After a low - level rebound, its short - term trend may be oscillating and strengthening, supported by continuous inventory reduction and long - term industry losses. The SA2601 contract price rose on the 16th, and the basis converged. Short - term long positions can be considered based on the support level of 1,140 - 1,150 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the suppression in the range of 1,190 - 1,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure remains high, and the demand is weak, so the price range is expected to move down [3][4] Stock Index Futures - The overall index showed a unilateral downward trend, with a weak rebound in the afternoon and closing with a medium - sized negative line. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the support level around 3,850, and the market is likely to experience a C - wave decline. Short - term selling on rallies is recommended [6][7] Gold - After a period of sideways oscillation, gold shows signs of upward movement again, and long positions can be attempted [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the domestic demand support in the real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak. Technically, it should be treated with a wide - range oscillation strategy of high - selling and low - buying [12][13] Glass - The daily melting volume has declined, and inventory has decreased again this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side capacity clearance. Technically, the downward trend has not been reversed, and an oscillating and bearish view should be maintained [16][17] Palm Oil - As the producing areas gradually enter the production - reduction season, if the export of Malaysian palm oil remains weak, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in December. Short opportunities should be grasped [18] Pulp - With the continuous boost of domestic demand by domestic policies, increased production cuts of overseas pulp mills, and the gradual clearance of backward papermaking production capacity, the demand for commercial pulp is expected to improve overall. An oscillating trend is predicted [22]