广发证券晨会精选-20251217

Core Insights - The report indicates that the transportation sector is facing significant profit impacts in 2025, with a general decline in ROE and net profit year-on-year. The market is currently pricing in a disconnection between stock prices and 2025 performance trends, highlighting a situation where profit and stock price bottoms are evident, but valuations appear high [3]. Transportation Sector Analysis - The report suggests that in 2026, the focus should be on identifying alpha within beta stocks, as different sub-industries will experience varying recovery paces. Key investment strategies include: 1. Domestic demand recovery is expected to precede external demand, with a low base in 2026 being a significant factor [3]. 2. Upstream sectors are anticipated to recover before downstream sectors, with initial signs of price and inventory recovery in Q3 2025 [3]. 3. Price increases are expected to precede volume growth, with supply constraints influencing the cyclical recovery across different sectors [3]. Macro Economic Outlook - The report provides a macroeconomic outlook for 2026, indicating that while U.S. broad market indices are relatively expensive, they are not at extreme levels. The Chinese stock market has potential for nominal growth recovery, which could lead to a re-evaluation of A-share valuations [3]. - The report also highlights that the current market breadth is healthy, suggesting a broad-based potential for upward movement in indices such as the S&P 500 and the CSI 300 [3].