Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is some uncertainty in the market at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - decline, while being vigilant against redemption risks [6]. - For precious metals, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper is expected to fluctuate at a high level; aluminum prices are strongly supported and may rise after adjustment; zinc may give back some gains; lead is expected to fluctuate weakly in a wide range; nickel is recommended to wait and see; tin is recommended to wait and see; lithium carbonate is expected to adjust weakly in a range; alumina is recommended to wait and see; stainless steel is recommended to wait and see; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate within a range [11][13][16][17][19][21][22][24][26][28]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly; glass is expected to oscillate narrowly; soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure; for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, attention should be paid to the cost - push factors and the direction of the black sector; industrial silicon is expected to run weakly; and polysilicon should pay attention to the pressure at the 60,000 - yuan mark [31][34][36][37][40][42][45]. - For energy and chemicals, for rubber, a neutral short - term operation is recommended; for crude oil, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended; for methanol, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended; for urea, it is recommended to go long at low prices; for pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year; for PVC, it is recommended to go short on rallies; for ethylene glycol, there is a risk of rebound due to unexpected maintenance; for PTA, attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips; for p - xylene, attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips; for polyethylene, it is recommended to shrink the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies; and for polypropylene, it may be supported by the change of the cost - supply pattern in the first quarter of next year [52][54][55][57][59][62][64][66][68][70][72]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, it is recommended to short after the consumption rebound and go long on the far - end contracts; for eggs, it is recommended to short on rallies for the near - end contracts and pay attention to the upper pressure for the far - end contracts; for soybean and rapeseed meal, it is expected to oscillate; for oils and fats, short - term operation based on high - frequency data is recommended; for sugar, a short - term wait - and - see attitude is recommended; and for cotton, it is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [75][77][80][82][85][87]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - Market Information: The top priority for next year is to expand domestic demand, and efforts will be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. Morgan Stanley predicts a copper supply gap of 260,000 tons in 2025 and 600,000 tons in 2026. The US added 64,000 non - farm jobs in November, with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [2]. - Strategy: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On December 16, the Ministry of Commerce imposed anti - dumping measures on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to improve the mechanism for expanding domestic demand. The central bank conducted a net injection of 18 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations on Tuesday [5]. - Strategy: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply - demand repair and rebound, and vigilance against redemption risks [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold fell 0.14% to 974.22 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.24% to 14,731 yuan/kg. The weak US non - farm payroll data supported the prices of gold and silver in the short term [7]. - Strategy: Hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: The US non - farm data affected the dollar index, and copper prices oscillated. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot premium changed. The import loss of domestic copper spot narrowed [10]. - Strategy: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the Shanghai copper main contract ranging from 91,200 - 93,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M from 11,500 - 11,800 dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: South32's Mozal aluminum plant will enter maintenance in March 2026, and aluminum prices oscillated upward. Global aluminum inventory continued to decline [12]. - Strategy: Aluminum prices are strongly supported and may rise after adjustment, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract ranging from 21,700 - 22,100 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M from 2,850 - 2,910 dollars/ton [13]. Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices fell. Zinc ore inventory decreased, and LME zinc inventory slowly increased. The Lun zinc had a large - scale warehouse delivery on December 16 [14][16]. - Strategy: Zinc may give back some gains [16]. Lead - Market Information: Lead prices fell. Lead ore inventory was basically flat, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [17]. - Strategy: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in a wide range [17]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices were weak. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices fell slightly [18]. - Strategy: Wait and see, with the Shanghai nickel price ranging from 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M from 13,000 - 15,500 dollars/ton [19]. Tin - Market Information: Tin prices fell. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi faced problems such as low processing fees and insufficient raw material supply. The demand was affected by high prices, and inventory increased [20]. - Strategy: Wait and see, with the domestic main contract ranging from 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin from 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose. The market is divided on supply release and demand fulfillment [22]. - Strategy: Lithium carbonate is expected to adjust weakly in a range, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2605 contract ranging from 97,800 - 103,200 yuan/ton [22]. Alumina - Market Information: Alumina prices rose slightly. The Guinea ore price was stable, and the inventory decreased [23]. - Strategy: Wait and see, with the domestic main contract AO2601 ranging from 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices fell. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased [25]. - Strategy: Wait and see as the market is in a tight - balance state and lacks a clear direction [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The inventory decreased slightly, and the trading volume was low [27]. - Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to cost support and demand pressure [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices changed slightly. The rebar production decreased, and the inventory declined. The hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, and the inventory removal was difficult. Export license management will be implemented from January 1, 2026 [30][31]. - Strategy: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom and may gradually digest the policy impact [31]. Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and the port inventory continued to rise. The iron water output decreased [32][33]. - Strategy: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Glass prices rose, and the inventory decreased. Soda ash prices rose, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - Strategy: Glass is expected to oscillate narrowly, and soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. The manganese silicon supply is loose, and the ferrosilicon supply - demand is balanced [38]. - Strategy: The market is affected by the black sector and cost factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore and electricity price changes [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. The production decline was limited, and the demand was weak. Polysilicon prices rose. The production is expected to decline, and the inventory pressure is high [41][45]. - Strategy: Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly, and polysilicon should pay attention to the 60,000 - yuan mark [42][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices oscillated. The inventory was low, and there was buying demand for winter storage. There were different views on the market [47][48]. - Strategy: Neutral short - term operation, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude oil and refined oil prices fell. The Chinese crude oil and refined oil inventories increased [53]. - Strategy: Wait and see, and test the OPEC's export - price support willingness [54]. Methanol - Market Information: Methanol prices fluctuated. The port inventory decreased, but the import is expected to be high, and the olefin plant has maintenance expectations [55]. - Strategy: Wait and see as the fundamentals have some pressure [55]. Urea - Market Information: Urea prices rose slightly. The demand improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - Strategy: Go long on urea at low prices [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed. The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low, and the inventory situation is different [58]. - Strategy: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [59]. PVC - Market Information: PVC prices rose. The production was high, the demand was weak, and the cost was stable [60]. - Strategy: Short on rallies due to strong supply and weak demand [62]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was expected to improve, but the inventory continued to rise [63]. - Strategy: There is a risk of rebound due to unexpected maintenance [64]. PTA - Market Information: PTA prices fell. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will decline in the off - season [65]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [66]. p - Xylene - Market Information: PX prices fell. The production load changed, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly [67]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: PE prices fell. The upstream production decreased, the inventory was high, and the downstream demand was weak [69]. - Strategy: Shrink the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: PP prices rose slightly. The upstream production increased, the inventory situation was complex, and the downstream demand oscillated seasonally [71]. - Strategy: It may be supported by the change of the cost - supply pattern in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices fluctuated slightly. Some regions had different trends in sales [74]. - Strategy: Short after the consumption rebound and go long on the far - end contracts [75]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the demand increased slightly [76]. - Strategy: Short on rallies for the near - end contracts and pay attention to the upper pressure for the far - end contracts [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: Soybean and rapeseed meal prices changed. The US soybean sales were slow, and the South American production was expected to be high. The domestic inventory was high [78][79]. - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the export was poor. The soybean planting progress in Brazil was good, and the US soybean oil inventory increased [81]. - Strategy: Short - term operation based on high - frequency data is recommended [82]. Sugar - Market Information: Sugar prices fell. The production in major producing countries is expected to increase, and the domestic import profit window is open [83][84]. - Strategy: A short - term wait - and - see attitude is recommended [85]. Cotton - Market Information: Cotton prices fluctuated. The downstream开机率 was stable, and the global cotton production was adjusted [86]. - Strategy: It is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [87].
宏观金融类：文字早评2025/12/17-20251217
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-17 01:02