招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Fed cut rates as expected, gold price regained strength, recommended to go long; silver overseas market was tight, but domestic inventory had accumulated for days, recommended to take profit on long positions temporarily [1] - Base Metals: - Copper: Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] - Aluminum: Expected to fluctuate due to overseas supply disruptions, warm macro - environment and low inventory [2] - Alumina: Faced downward pressure, follow the impact of Guinea's election on the ore end [2][3] - Zinc: Go long at low prices and be cautious about chasing highs [3] - Lead: Operate in a range, buy low and sell high [3] - Industrial Silicon: Observe as the market was in a weak oscillation with no clear direction [3] - Lithium Carbonate: Observe in the short - term, pay attention to the resumption of production rhythm and year - end energy storage policy guidance [3][4] - Polysilicon: Expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton [4] - Tin: Wait for low - buying opportunities [4] - Black Industry: - Rebar: Mainly observe, try to short the RB05 contract [5] - Iron Ore: Mainly observe [5][6] - Coking Coal: Mainly observe [6] - Agricultural Products: - Soybean Meal: US soybeans were weak, domestic market was near - strong and far - weak [6] - Corn: Spot price was expected to weaken, futures price to oscillate and fall [6] - Edible Oils: Oscillate weakly and show variety differentiation [6] - Cotton: Buy low with a price reference range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6] - Eggs: Futures price was expected to oscillate [7] - Pigs: Futures price was expected to oscillate [7] - Energy and Chemicals: - LLDPE: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8] - PVC: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [8] - Glass: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [8][9] - PP: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [9] - Crude Oil: Be used as a short - position configuration, short at high prices after geopolitical premiums [9] - Styrene: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on styrene or conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long styrene profit in the medium - long term [9] - Soda Ash: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold) - Market Performance: Gold price oscillated, international gold price basically closed flat [1] - Fundamentals: US November non - farm data was good, but unemployment rate soared; Fed had internal differences; domestic gold ETF had a small inflow, and inventories in different places changed [1] - Trading Strategy: Go long [1] Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper price oscillated weakly [2] - Fundamentals: US non - farm data and unemployment rate affected the dollar index; supply was tight, demand had price differences, and the London structure changed [2] - Trading Strategy: Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.34% [2] - Fundamentals: High - load production on the supply side, slightly decreased weekly aluminum product start - up rate on the demand side [2] - Trading Strategy: Expected to oscillate [2] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.16% [2] - Fundamentals: Stable production capacity on the supply side, high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants on the demand side [2] - Trading Strategy: Faced downward pressure, follow Guinea's election impact [2][3] Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE zinc 2601 contract decreased by 1.71% [3] - Fundamentals: Macro - warming and supply tightening; overseas and domestic supply issues; demand was differentiated; import window was closed [3] - Trading Strategy: Go long at low prices, be cautious about chasing highs [3] Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE lead 2601 contract decreased by 1.09% [3] - Fundamentals: Mild supply - demand, slightly decreased smelter start - up rate, slightly increased battery start - up rate, possible inventory accumulation [3] - Trading Strategy: Operate in a range [3] Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract increased by 0.18% [3] - Fundamentals: Increased furnace - opening quantity on the supply side, social inventory accumulated; demand in different industries had different trends [3] - Trading Strategy: Observe as the market was in a weak oscillation [3] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 decreased by 0.46% [3] - Fundamentals: Increased lithium concentrate price, increased production, decreased demand in some materials; expected to maintain destocking [3][4] - Trading Strategy: Observe in the short - term [3][4] Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract increased by 0.18% [4] - Fundamentals: Stable production on the supply side, decreased demand in related industries; expected inventory accumulation [4] - Trading Strategy: Expected to fluctuate widely [4] Tin - Market Performance: Tin price oscillated weakly [4] - Fundamentals: Tight supply, increased supply from Myanmar; demand had delivery and premium situations [4] - Trading Strategy: Wait for low - buying opportunities [4] Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 7 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamentals: Decreased inventory, weak supply - demand, structural differentiation; high - loss of steel mills, possible production reduction [5] - Trading Strategy: Observe, try to short the RB05 contract [5] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 8.5 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamentals: Increased shipment, decreased port inventory; weak supply - demand, decreased iron - water production; marginal weakening of supply - demand [5][6] - Trading Strategy: Observe [5][6] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 4 yuan/ton [6] - Fundamentals: Decreased iron - water production, deteriorated steel mill profits; first - round coke price cut implemented, second - round proposed; inventory was at a neutral level [6] - Trading Strategy: Observe [6] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans continued to decline [6] - Fundamentals: Slight reduction in the near - term supply, large supply in the far - term in South America; strong US soybean crushing and slow export [6] - Trading Strategy: US soybeans were weak, domestic market was near - strong and far - weak [6] Corn - Market Performance: Futures price oscillated narrowly, spot price slightly decreased [6] - Fundamentals: Low channel inventory, short - term supply shortage, but downstream losses and reduced procurement enthusiasm [6] - Trading Strategy: Spot price to weaken, futures price to oscillate and fall [6] Edible Oils - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to fall [6] - Fundamentals: Seasonal production reduction but year - on - year increase on the supply side; weak export on the demand side; near - term inventory accumulation [6] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly and show variety differentiation [6] Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton futures price started to fall, Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rise [6] - Fundamentals: Slightly bearish US cotton export data, Brazilian cotton export increased; strong buying support for Zhengzhou cotton but weak yarn price increase [6] - Trading Strategy: Buy low in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6] Eggs - Market Performance: Futures price was weak, spot price increased [7] - Fundamentals: Decreased laying - hen inventory, slowed de - capacity; low price could drive demand, but high price reduced downstream purchasing willingness [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures price to oscillate [7] Pigs - Market Performance: Futures price oscillated, spot price slightly decreased [7] - Fundamentals: Sufficient supply, seasonal increase in demand; increased southern curing demand, expected increase in slaughter volume [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures price to oscillate [7] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [8] - Fundamentals: New device production and some device shutdowns on the supply side, reduced import expected; off - season for downstream demand [8] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8] PVC - Market Performance: V05 increased by 1.9% [8] - Fundamentals: Boosted by macro - sentiment, increased supply, decreased downstream start - up rate, high social inventory [8] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [8] Glass - Market Performance: FG05 decreased by 0.2% [8] - Fundamentals: Decreased price, increased production reduction, seasonal inventory decline, weak supply - demand, low valuation [8][9] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [8][9] PP - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [9] - Fundamentals: New device production and some device shutdowns on the supply side, opened export window; decreased downstream start - up rate [9] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [9] Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil price continuously fell to a five - year low [9] - Fundamentals: Supply was affected by sanctions and production increases; demand was in the off - season; inventory was above the five - year average [9] - Trading Strategy: Be used as a short - position configuration, short at high prices after geopolitical premiums [9] Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [9] - Fundamentals: High pure benzene and styrene inventories; decreased downstream demand [9] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on styrene or conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long styrene profit in the medium - long term [9] Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa05 increased by 1.4% [10] - Fundamentals: New device production, price decline, high inventory, weak downstream demand [10] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [10]