国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251217

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is expected to run in a weakly oscillating manner due to a significant decline in crude oil prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil struggles to stabilize as US soybeans are running weakly [2][4]. - Soybean meal is predicted to oscillate at a low level [2][13]. - Soybean No. 1 will be in an oscillating state [2][13]. - For corn, attention should be paid to the spot market [2][15]. - Sugar will run weakly [2][19]. - Cotton is expected to oscillate strongly, with attention to downstream demand [2][24]. - Eggs will maintain an oscillating state [2][29]. - The demand peak for pork will arrive around the Winter Solstice [2][32]. - For peanuts, attention should be paid to the purchases by oil mills [2][38]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental Tracking: The closing prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures all declined, and the trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil decreased, while that of rapeseed oil increased. Spot prices also generally declined, and the basis and price spreads showed certain changes [5]. - Macro and Industry News: From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased. From January - November, Malaysia's palm oil and palm - oil product exports increased. In October 2025, Brazil's soybean processing data was released. India may reform its commodity derivatives market. As of December 14, EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed all decreased compared to the previous year. France's winter rapeseed planting area in 2026 is expected to increase [6][8][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is -1 [10]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - Fundamental Tracking: The prices of DCE soybean No. 1 and CBOT soybeans declined, while the prices of DCE soybean meal increased slightly. Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions showed different trends, and the trading volume decreased, while the inventory decreased [12]. - Macro and Industry News: On December 16, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to concerns about US export demand and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans [12][14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No. 1 is 0 [14]. 3.3 Corn - Fundamental Tracking: Spot prices such as the Jinzhou closing price and the Guangdong Shekou price of corn decreased. Futures prices of C2601 and C2603 declined, and the trading volume of C2601 decreased while that of C2603 increased. The basis and price spreads showed certain values [16]. - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn port prices decreased, Northeast deep - processing corn prices increased slightly, and North China corn prices oscillated. Imported sorghum and barley prices were reported [17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [18]. 3.4 Sugar - Fundamental Tracking: The original sugar price, mainstream spot price, and futures main - contract price all declined. The 15 - spread and 59 - spread decreased, while the mainstream spot basis increased [19]. - Macro and Industry News: As of December 15, India's sugar production in the 25/26 season increased year - on - year. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased year - on - year, and exports in November decreased. China's sugar imports in October increased, and attention should be paid to the import policy of syrup and premix. CAOC estimated China's sugar production, consumption, and imports in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season [19][20][21]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of sugar is -1 [22]. 3.5 Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: The prices of CF2605 decreased slightly during the day and increased slightly at night, and the prices of CY2603 increased. ICE US cotton prices declined. Spot prices in some regions increased, and the trading volume and positions of futures showed certain changes [24]. - Macro and Industry News: The overall transaction of cotton spot was still favorable, mainly with low - basis transactions. The price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable, but new orders of inland spinning enterprises were insufficient, and some enterprises were expected to have an early holiday. ICE cotton futures declined due to poor export data [25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [26]. 3.6 Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: The price of egg 2601 increased slightly, while that of egg 2602 decreased slightly. The trading volume of both decreased, and the positions of egg 2601 decreased while those of egg 2602 increased. The price spreads and spot prices in different regions remained stable [29]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [29]. 3.7 Pork - Fundamental Tracking: Spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong remained unchanged. Futures prices of different contracts showed different trends, and the trading volume and positions of different contracts also changed. The basis and price spreads showed certain values [34]. - Market Information: Some companies registered warehouse receipts in December. The Ministry of Commerce determined that there was dumping of imported related pork and by - products from the EU [35]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of pork is 0 [36]. 3.8 Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: The spot prices of peanuts in some regions decreased, and the futures prices of PK601 and PK603 declined. The trading volume of PK601 decreased while that of PK603 increased, and the positions of both decreased. The basis and price spreads showed certain values [38]. - Spot Market Focus: Peanut prices in different regions such as Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were generally stable or weakly declining [39]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [40].