国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Unemployment is rising [2] - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2] - Copper: The weakening dollar supports prices [2] - Zinc: Domestic and overseas markets are in resonance [2] - Lead: Lacking price drivers and experiencing price fluctuations [2] - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2] - Aluminum: Trading sideways [2] - Alumina: Slightly rebounding [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: Showing a strong upward momentum [2] - Palladium: Continuously breaking through resistance levels and approaching previous highs [2] - Nickel: The structural surplus is changing, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [2] - Stainless steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are fluctuating at low levels [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Fundamentals: The closing prices of various gold futures and spot products showed fluctuations. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 971.42, with a daily decline of 1.19%. Trading volume decreased, and inventory changes were relatively small [4] - News: US non - farm payrolls in October had the largest decline in five years, recovered in November but remained weak overall, and the unemployment rate reached a four - year high [4] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [8] Silver - Fundamentals: Similar to gold, silver prices fluctuated, trading volume decreased, and inventory changes were significant in some cases. For example, the Shanghai Silver 2602 closing price was 14666, with a daily decline of 0.85% [4] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [8] Copper - Fundamentals: The closing prices of Shanghai and London copper futures declined. Trading volume and open interest decreased. Inventory changes were mixed, and spot - futures spreads also changed [10] - News: In November, US non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly reached a four - year high. In October, Codelco's copper production in Chile decreased by 14.3% year - on - year, while Peru's copper production increased by 4.8% [10][12] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [12] Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing prices of Shanghai and London zinc futures declined. Trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot premiums and discounts, inventory, and other indicators also changed [13] - News: US retail sales in October were flat overall, but core indicators strongly supported Q4 growth. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI contracted further [14] - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish trend [15] Lead - Fundamentals: The closing prices of Shanghai and London lead futures declined. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends, and inventory and price spreads changed [16] - News: Similar to copper, US non - farm payrolls and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI had a certain impact [17] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [17] Tin - Fundamentals: The closing prices of Shanghai and London tin futures declined. Trading volume decreased, and inventory and price spreads changed [19] - News: Similar to gold, including US non - farm payrolls and other macro - news [20] - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish trend [21] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: Aluminum prices were trading sideways, alumina prices slightly rebounded, and cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum. Various futures and spot indicators such as closing prices, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads changed [22] - News: China plans to promote investment and consumption growth next year, and the real estate supply side will control increments and revitalize stocks. The US labor market is cooling [23] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend for all three [23] Platinum and Palladium - Fundamentals: Platinum and palladium prices rose, trading volume and open interest changed, and ETF holdings and price spreads also changed [26] - News: US non - farm payrolls, ADP employment reports, and news related to the Fed chair candidate and international trade policies [29] - Trend Intensity: 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend for both [28] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: Nickel and stainless steel prices declined. Various industry indicators such as trading volume, open interest, product prices, and spreads changed [30] - News: Indonesian nickel mines have been affected by regulatory actions, China has adjusted import subsidies, and the US may impose additional tariffs on China. Also, some US Fed officials have made dovish statements, and China will implement export license management for some steel products [30][33] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [34]