国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The surplus shows a structural shift, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices fluctuate at a low level [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The impact of mining right cancellation is limited, but sentiment may be supported [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The strategy is mainly to short on rallies [2][12]. - Polysilicon: Some companies have raised their quotes, and attention should be paid to actual transactions [2][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 112,290, down 2,400 from the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,320, down 160 from the previous day [4]. - Industry Chain: The price of 1 imported nickel was 112,350, down 2,700 from the previous day; the price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi, Taiyuan/Zhangpu) was 13,250, down 50 from the previous day [4]. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [4]. - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [5]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies [5]. - Indonesia's OSS platform suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses [7]. - Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesia's industrial park will reduce production in December, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons [7]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [8]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 98,740, down 360 from the previous day; the closing price of the 2605 contract was 100,600, down 460 from the previous day [9]. - Industry Chain: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,850, up 700 from the previous day; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,700, up 80 from the previous day [9]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose by 724 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [10]. - Jiangxi Special Electric Co., Ltd.'s mining right in the Shiziling mining area may be cancelled, and the company is striving to renew it and promote the production of the Xikeng lithium mine [11]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,365, up 15 from the previous day; the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,600, up 570 from the previous day [13]. - Price and Profit: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,750, unchanged from the previous day; the profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,919.5 yuan/ton, down 85 from the previous day [13]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 56.1 tons, with an increase of 0.3 tons compared with a week ago; the polysilicon - manufacturer inventory was 29.3 tons, with an increase of 0.2 tons compared with a week ago [13]. Macro and Industry News In 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China will exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 14%, and the total social electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time [13][15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15].