山金期货黑色板块日报-20251217

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, with significant inventory pressure. Steel production is expected to continue to decline slowly due to reduced mill margins and the end of the consumption peak. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system still exert some pressure on the market [2]. - For iron ore, as the consumption off - season approaches, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The high global shipments and rising port inventories are putting pressure on prices, and iron ore faces relatively greater pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply and Demand: Last week, the production of threaded bars and hot - rolled coils decreased week - on - week, and the overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coils remains significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the de - stocking pressure for threaded bars is relatively small. This week, the apparent demand has declined overall, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - Cost: The recent sharp decline in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - Technical Analysis: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly, but it has not yet broken out of the recent oscillation range [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Long positions can be held with a light position. If the market continues to decline and forms a new downward trend, appropriate position reduction or liquidation can be considered. Shorting is not recommended at the current position [2]. - Data: The closing price of the threaded bar futures main contract was 3081 yuan/ton, up 0.06% week - on - week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3246 yuan/ton, down 0.18% week - on - week. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace开工率 was 80.16%, down 0.93 percentage points week - on - week; the average daily pig iron output was 229.2 million tons, down 1.33% week - on - week [3]. 3.2. Iron Ore - Demand: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week. As the consumption off - season arrives, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The reduction of steel production by mills is suppressing raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - holiday replenishment demand will also come later than in previous years [5]. - Supply: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories is putting pressure on futures prices. The building steel production license system and the inclusion of some steel products in export license management will affect exports next year, and iron ore faces relatively greater pressure [5]. - Technical Analysis: The 05 contract has not yet broken out of the wide - range oscillation pattern at a relatively high level [5]. - Operation Suggestion: Long positions can be held with a light position for medium - term trading. Adopt an oscillation mindset and avoid chasing highs or selling lows [5]. - Data: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 753 yuan/dry ton, down 3.28% week - on - week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - first contract was 102.55 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.81% week - on - week. Australian iron ore shipments were 1764.1 million tons, down 1.20% week - on - week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 819.5 million tons, up 37.92% week - on - week [5]. 3.3. Industry News - As of December 16, 5 steel mills announced their 2026 winter - storage policies, covering the Northeast, North, and Northwest regions. The policies require full payment by December 20, and the unsettled resources will be settled at the average price from March 16 to April 15 next year, with a daily settlement cap of 15%, and the interest calculation method is 6‰ per day, with interest stopping on the point - pricing day [7]. - According to the official notice of the Handan Ecological Environment Bureau, Handan officially launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 12:00 on December 14. Steel enterprises in the jurisdiction need to strictly implement production - restriction control measures. Three blast furnaces of plate mills in Handan are under maintenance, and it is expected that the average daily pig iron output will decrease by about 15,000 tons. Another blast furnace plans to join the maintenance, which will further affect the average daily pig iron output by about 5,000 tons [7]. - The Yimin Coal Mine of Inner Mongolia Youheng Coal Co., Ltd. was ordered to suspend production for rectification for 2 days due to major safety hazards [7].