纸浆期货波动，现货持续走低

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes various agricultural products including pulp, oils and fats, protein meals, corn/starch, live pigs, natural and synthetic rubbers, cotton, sugar, double gum paper, and logs, providing insights into their market trends, influencing factors, and future outlooks [1][5][6][7][8][11][12][15][16][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp - View: Futures fluctuate while spot prices continue to decline. The market has more positive factors, which will push up the bottom of futures price movements. It is expected that the low on December 1st will not be broken again. The upper pressure comes from weak demand, and the 05 contract should pay attention to the pressure in the 5650 - 5750 area [1][15]. - Logic: Positive drivers include rising US dollar - denominated prices of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations from mill shutdowns, potential for other mills to cut production, and relatively high actual demand. Negative factors are difficulties in cost transfer for downstream paper, seasonal decline in demand starting from January, and high hedging pressure on traders if downstream purchases remain weak [1][15]. - Outlook: Oscillate and rise. Positive news raises the bottom, but the upper hedging pressure remains unchanged [2][15]. Oils and Fats - View: The market sentiment is still weak. Pay attention to whether the lower level can provide technical support. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - Logic: Influenced by factors such as the overall selling in the agricultural product market, concerns about the slowdown of US soybean export demand, the expected high yield of South American soybeans, high domestic soybean inventory, and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil exports [5]. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate weakly. The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and the current sentiment is weak. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [5]. Protein Meals - View: The premium of state - reserve auctions has narrowed, and the two meals are oscillating at a low level [6]. - Logic: Internationally, Brazilian soybean sowing is almost complete, and Argentina is accelerating the sale of new crops. US soybean is expected to oscillate. Domestically, short - term state - reserve soybean auction results, slow seasonal inventory reduction of soybean meal, medium - term purchase progress, uncertainty of Australian rapeseed imports, and long - term South American weather all affect the market [6]. - Outlook: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal will all oscillate [6]. Corn/Starch - View: After the snow and rain, the supply in the production area continues to increase [7]. - Logic: Domestic corn prices are weakening steadily. Affected by news of regulatory reserve auctions and high - level resistance on the futures market, the market sentiment has turned, and the supply in the market has increased. It is expected that prices will first fall and then rise before the Spring Festival, and it is unlikely to break the previous low [7][8]. - Outlook: Oscillate weakly. Short - term observation is recommended [7]. Live Pigs - View: Supply and demand remain loose, and pig prices are oscillating within a narrow range [8]. - Logic: In the short term, the supply of large pigs from second - fattening is increasing. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs will continue to be excessive until April 2026. In the long term, sow production capacity is being reduced, and the supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand may increase after the snowfall, and the average slaughter weight has declined. The industry is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - Outlook: Oscillate weakly. In the near - term, prices are expected to be weak. In the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse spread strategy [8]. Natural Rubber - View: Maintain a wide - range intraday oscillation [8]. - Logic: Currently, it is in a stage without a strong driver. Although the price has risen due to geopolitical conflicts and the overall commodity rebound, it mostly falls back within the day. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market to some extent, but there is a risk of decline. The demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation without strong expectations or macro - level drive [8][9][10]. - Outlook: Due to limited fundamental variables, the price is expected to continue to oscillate, and there is unlikely to be a trend - based unilateral market [10]. Synthetic Rubber - View: The positive sentiment in the market is maintained [11]. - Logic: The BR futures market is oscillating strongly, and its position is increasing. It is mainly due to the marginal improvement of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price of BR. The butadiene price is oscillating, and the demand side has certain support. Although there is an expectation of import arrivals, the current good trading situation supports the market [11]. - Outlook: Temporarily treat the market as oscillating strongly, but the sustainability of the upward trend is questionable [11]. Cotton - View: Cotton prices have slightly declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability [12]. - Logic: On the supply side, the output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and the supply is increasing. On the demand side, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. The commercial inventory is increasing, but the inventory accumulation speed is lower than expected, indicating good consumption. The market is concerned about the potential reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang next year, which has pushed up the price in the short term. However, the actual upward - driving force of the fundamentals is limited [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the price is pushed up by sentiment, and there is a risk of correction. In the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. It is advisable to buy on dips [12]. Sugar - View: The supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the decline of sugar prices has widened [12]. - Logic: In the medium - to - long - term, the global sugar supply is expected to change from tight to loose in the 25/26 crushing season. The production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. The production of Brazilian sugar has passed its peak, and the market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere. With the increase in supply, the pressure on sugar prices is increasing [12][14]. - Outlook: In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season [12][14]. Double Gum Paper - View: Publishers'提货 continues, and the inventory pressure on paper enterprises has been alleviated [16]. - Logic: Recently, the publication orders have started to be picked up, which has alleviated the inventory pressure of some paper enterprises. However, the social demand has not improved significantly, and distributors mainly maintain stable prices. The market is facing factors such as stable prices of large - scale paper enterprises, rational stocking by distributors, different trends of different types of double - gum paper, and the divergence between pulp and paper prices. In the future, the supply pressure still exists, and paper enterprises may adjust the market supply and demand through price cuts or production cuts [16]. - Outlook: Supported by publishers'提货 and paper enterprises' costs, but the medium - term demand is expected to be weak. The price of double - gum paper will run weakly and stably [16][17]. Logs - View: The valuation is low, and the market rebounds with reduced positions [19]. - Logic: The spot price has weakened, which has affected the market sentiment. However, the near - month contract has reached a low - valuation area and has certain support. Overseas shipments are expected to decrease from December to January, and the domestic demand is weak. The 01 contract has a certain profit in buying for delivery, and the 03 contract has more game points. Considering the low overall valuation, hold the 1 - 3 reverse spread and pay attention to the opportunity of buying the 03 contract at a low price [19]. - Outlook: The loose pattern of the log market continues. The near - month contract lacks game value. Pay attention to the reverse spread or the opportunity of buying the far - month contract at a low price [19].