能源化策略日报：俄乌和平谈判推动油价下?，化?产业端积极反抗低利润低价格-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report did not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations has pushed oil prices down, and the chemical industry is actively resisting low profits and prices. The global chemical industry's capacity reduction continues, and the short - term energy and chemical sector is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, with short - term profit - taking on short positions as the main strategy [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Energy and Chemicals: The overall energy and chemical sector is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to take short - term profit on short positions [3]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Geopolitical factors in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market. Pay attention to the support at the previous low. - Main Logic: API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased last week, while gasoline and diesel inventories increased. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term fluctuations. The market is in a state of expected supply surplus, and the support at the previous low may come from the short - term geopolitical situation in Venezuela [6]. - Outlook: The expected supply surplus pattern continues, and geopolitical expectations may fluctuate. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the short - term support at the annual low. 3.2.2 Asphalt - Viewpoint: The spot market is weak, and the asphalt futures price has fallen below the 2900 support level. - Main Logic: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists, leading to a decline in oil prices. The asphalt futures price has fallen below an important support level. The pricing of futures has returned to Shandong's spot price, and the high valuation of asphalt is being revised down. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still high [7]. - Outlook: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, showing a downward trend. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is insufficient. - Main Logic: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists. The decline in oil prices has led to a fall in high - sulfur fuel oil prices. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three major driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [7]. - Outlook: The supply and demand are weak, showing a downward trend. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. - Main Logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply pressure of domestic refined oil is increasing, and the supply and demand of low - sulfur fuel oil are facing a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9]. - Outlook: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but with a low current valuation, it fluctuates with crude oil. 3.2.5 PX - Viewpoint: Cost drags down the absolute price trend, while its strong fundamentals support firm profits. - Main Logic: International oil prices have continued to adjust downward. The positive signal from the Russia - Ukraine peace process has led to a decline in Brent oil prices. Under the support of PTA and polyester demand, the decline in PX prices is limited, but in the short term, it is greatly affected by cost and lacks new positive drivers [10]. - Outlook: In the short term, it fluctuates and consolidates under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. It is expected that PXN will consolidate in the range of [260, 300]. The positive spread logic is maintained. 3.2.6 PTA - Viewpoint: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains firm. - Main Logic: International oil prices are oscillating and falling, and the cost support has collapsed. PX's good supply - demand expectations prevent the cost decline from being overly transmitted to downstream products. The short - term supply and demand of PTA are stable, and the basis is relatively strong. The price follows the upstream cost and oscillates weakly [10]. - Outlook: The price oscillates and consolidates with the cost, and the processing fee maintains a certain range with limited expansion space. It is recommended to go long on the TA05 contract in the range of 4600 - 4700 on dips. 3.2.7 Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: There are differences in expectations, and pure benzene oscillates. - Main Logic: Pure benzene is currently in a state of weak reality and divergent expectations. The recent trading on the disk focuses on the far - month device maintenance and storage pressure. The market has large differences in the balance forecast for Q1 2026, mainly due to different estimates of imports and the return of downstream devices. The chemical market atmosphere is pessimistic [10][11]. - Outlook: Oscillation. 3.2.8 Styrene - Viewpoint: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and styrene oscillates. - Main Logic: Recently, the support from crude oil and the cost side has been insufficient, dragging down the styrene price. The supply - demand of styrene is in a tight - balance state, providing support for the price, but there is insufficient upward driving force. In December, there is an expectation of further inventory reduction, but the release of liquidity will suppress the upward space. From January, the seasonal inventory accumulation will start [13]. - Outlook: Oscillation. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Viewpoint: Device disruptions increase, further consolidating price support, but there is still a lack of medium - term drivers. - Main Logic: The price of ethylene glycol has rebounded. The previous price adjustment was sufficient, and the low price has led to production cuts on the supply side. The arrival volume of foreign ships is moderate, and the inventory accumulation rate at ports has slowed down. In the short term, the price is expected to remain low, but in the long - term, the inventory accumulation pressure limits the rebound height [14][15]. - Outlook: In the short term, the price may bottom out under industry resistance, and in the long term, the inventory accumulation pressure is still large, with limited rebound height and wide - range low - level oscillation. 3.2.10 Polyester Staple Fiber - Viewpoint: The cost trend is divergent, and the demand is weak. - Main Logic: The upstream polymerization cost shows a divergent trend. PTA is affected by international oil prices and oscillates weakly, while ethylene glycol rebounds. The price of polyester staple fiber is relatively resistant to decline, but the demand is weak, and there is no upward driving force in the off - season [19][20]. - Outlook: The price of staple fiber oscillates with the upstream, and the support for the processing fee below is enhanced. The long - TA and short - PF positions should take profit and exit. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - Viewpoint: The trend of upstream polyester raw materials is divergent. - Main Logic: The upstream polyester raw materials show a divergent trend. PTA is weakly oscillating, and ethylene glycol is rising. The price of polyester bottle chips is narrowly consolidating, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable [21]. - Outlook: The absolute value fluctuates with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee below is enhanced. 3.2.12 Methanol - Viewpoint: The unloading at coastal areas is lower than expected, and the supply and demand in the inland support methanol to oscillate and consolidate. - Main Logic: The methanol market oscillates and consolidates. The supply in the inland market is abundant, and enterprises reduce prices to sell goods. The port inventory is being digested, and the inventory in the inland is low, supporting the price. The overall pattern in coastal areas is weaker than that in the inland [23]. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation and consolidation. 3.2.13 Urea - Viewpoint: The demand support is insufficient, and the disk oscillates weakly. - Main Logic: Although the supply of urea has decreased slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. The demand support from off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export has weakened, and the environmental protection warning and production restrictions in the mainstream areas may reduce the short - term industrial demand [24]. - Outlook: The market lacks effective positive support, and the price may decline slightly. Pay attention to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the start - up of compound fertilizer factories. 3.2.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - Viewpoint: Oil prices are weak, and the support from maintenance is limited. Plastic oscillates. - Main Logic: The plastic futures price oscillates. It is mainly driven by PP recently. Oil prices are oscillating and weakening, and the geopolitical premium is fluctuating. The fundamental support of plastic itself is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [27]. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation. 3.2.15 PP - Viewpoint: Supported by the maintenance expectation, PP oscillates. - Main Logic: The PDH profit is temporarily under pressure. Oil prices are oscillating and weakening, and the geopolitical premium is fluctuating. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the supply pressure is still large, and the inventory is relatively high [28]. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation. 3.2.16 PL - Viewpoint: The spot is strong, and the PDH maintenance expectation supports PL to oscillate. - Main Logic: The PDH maintenance expectation still has a boosting effect. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the downstream buying is cautious. The short - term powder profit is under pressure, and the start - up decline has a dragging effect [29]. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation. 3.2.17 PVC - Viewpoint: The exit of overseas devices boosts PVC sentiment. - Main Logic: Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" sentiment may have a short - term boosting effect on low - valuation varieties. Microscopically, the exit of a 450,000 - ton PVC production capacity of a US company boosts market sentiment, but the domestic over - supply expectation still exists [30]. - Outlook: The exit of overseas devices improves market sentiment, but the rebound space of PVC is limited, and the pressure lies in profit repair and the resumption of domestic marginal production capacity. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda may oscillate. - Main Logic: Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" sentiment may have a short - term boosting effect. Microscopically, the decline in liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and there is an expectation of production cuts, but it has not been implemented yet. The fundamentals are under pressure [33]. - Outlook: The fundamentals are under pressure, but the profit is poor. The disk should be observed, and the downward space is limited. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [35]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [36]. - Inter - variety Spread: Presents the latest values and change values of inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [38]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical varieties, including methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text.