现实预期博弈，盘?震荡运

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. The medium - term outlook for most varieties is "oscillation", and for coking coal, it is "oscillation with a slight upward trend" [7][9][10][12][13][14][15][17][18][19] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The game between reality and expectation leads to the oscillatory operation of the futures market. Although the steel export expectation is weak, the policy tone is still positive. The demand weakens in the off - season. The rebar fundamentals have resilience, while the hot - rolled coil has inventory pressure. The iron ore has strong downside support due to winter storage expectations, the coking coal and coke valuations may be repaired by downstream replenishment, and the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside space of glass and soda ash [3][4] - Overall, with the end of macro - disturbances, the off - season fundamentals are poor, but winter storage replenishment expectations still exist, and the futures market is expected to oscillate at a low level [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron Ore: The spot price has a slight upward trend. Overseas mine shipments increase, arrivals fluctuate greatly, demand weakens, and port inventories accumulate slightly. In the short term, the ore price is expected to oscillate [10] - Scrap Steel: This week's arrivals have decreased. Supply and demand are stable, inventories are accumulating, but the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported by good electric furnace profits. The spot price is expected to oscillate [12] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The futures are stable, and the spot is weak. The cost support is weak, but with the upcoming winter storage, the fundamentals have few contradictions, and the current futures valuation is low. It is expected to follow the coking coal to oscillate [14] - Coking Coal: The futures are stable. The domestic supply is low, imports are high, and the demand is improving. With the approaching of winter storage, the spot trading is expected to improve, and the futures valuation may be repaired upward [15] 3.3 Alloys - Silicomanganese: The market supply is strong and demand is weak, suppressing the upside space of the futures. The cost is high, but the cost transfer is difficult. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level following the sector [18] - Ferrosilicon: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and de - stocking is difficult. The cost is high, supporting the price bottom. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level following the sector [19] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The current price contradiction is limited. The supply may be disturbed, but the mid - and downstream inventories are relatively high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [16] - Soda Ash: The production has a slight fluctuation, and the price oscillates and rebounds. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious change, and the industry is in a stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [5][7] 3.5 Steel - The spot market trading is average. Near the end of the year, steel mill maintenance increases, steel production decreases, and demand is weakening. The overall steel inventory is decreasing, but the inventory level is still high year - on - year. Affected by the new steel export regulations, the export expectation is weak, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure [9] 3.6 Commodity Index - On December 16, 2025, the comprehensive index decreased by 0.38% to 2250.27, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.37% to 2575.72, and the industrial product index decreased by 0.21% to 2180.09. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.49% on the day, decreased by 0.79% in the past 5 days, decreased by 3.18% in the past month, and decreased by 8.49% since the beginning of the year [104][106]