锚定战略基点,激活内需潜能
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-17 01:30

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1][8] Core Insights - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as a strategic initiative, positioning consumption as a core driver for economic growth and stability [2][3] - The report highlights the need to accelerate the expansion of domestic demand, particularly in consumption, to maintain long-term economic health and meet the growing needs of the population [3] - The focus on domestic consumption is seen as a long-term strategy rather than a short-term measure, indicating potential for ongoing stimulus policies to boost the consumption market [3] Summary by Sections Economic Context - The Central Economic Work Conference identified "domestic demand as the main driver" and prioritized building a strong domestic market as a key task for 2026 [3] - The article in "Qiushi" magazine underscores the necessity of expanding domestic demand to support sustainable economic growth [2][3] Investment Opportunities - The report anticipates investment opportunities in the consumption sector for 2026, with a projected mild recovery in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [3] - The recovery elasticity is expected to rank as follows: Services > Consumer Staples > High-end Consumption [3] - Services are highlighted as a key area for recovery, with strong policy support and high demand elasticity [3] - Consumer staples are expected to stabilize and recover due to strong demand and cost pass-through capabilities [3] - High-end consumption, while having weaker recovery elasticity, presents structural opportunities in sectors like premium liquor and high-end appliances [3]