宝城期货资讯早班车-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The overall economic situation shows a mixed picture. The external demand has improved, and prices have generally increased, but domestic demand is still bottom - seeking. Policies are expected to be more active in 2026 to support economic recovery, and the bond market is expected to have opportunities. Multiple institutions are optimistic about the continued rebound of Chinese assets in 2026 [24][25][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew at a 4.8% year - on - year rate, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% but higher than the 4.6% of the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing certain trends compared to previous periods [1]. - Social financing scale in November 2025 was not provided, with previous values of 24,885 billion yuan and 8,161 billion yuan, and the same - period value last year of 23,288 billion yuan [1]. - CPI in November 2025 increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to November 2025 had a cumulative year - on - year decline of 2.6%, and the social consumer goods retail total had a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0% [1]. - Exports in November 2025 increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - In 2026, expanding domestic demand is the top priority, and efforts will be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. The real estate market will be stabilized from both supply and demand ends [2]. - Anti - dumping duties of 4.9% - 19.8% will be imposed on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU starting from December 17, 2025, for a period of 5 years [2]. - On December 16, 2025, 42 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 25 had negative basis [2]. Metals - Copper prices soared to a record high, partly due to the large - scale copper hoarding by the US. The LME's three - month copper price reached a high of $11,952 per ton last Friday, currently around $11,626 per ton, up about 33% this year [4]. - On December 15, 2025, zinc, lead, tin, and copper inventories reached new highs, while nickel and aluminum inventories decreased [5]. - Morgan Stanley expects nickel prices to rebound to around $15,500 per ton in 2026 [5]. - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the average copper price in 2026 from $10,650 to $11,400 per ton, and there is a 55% probability that the Trump administration will announce a 15% copper import tariff in the first half of 2026, which may take effect in 2027 and increase to 30% in 2028 [6]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - A series of measures to rectify the "involution - style" competition in the steel industry are being implemented, and the upstream coke and iron ore prices have declined [7]. - Yichun plans to cancel 27 mining licenses, including Jiangte Motor's Yifeng County Shiziling Lithium - bearing Porcelain Stone Mine [7]. - Rio Tinto will launch the first phase of a project in Western Australia, with an estimated iron ore production of 50 million tons per year by 2030 [8]. - Japan will cooperate with Malaysia in the exploration and development of rare earth and other mineral resources [8]. - In November 2025, Brazilian steel sales decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 1.748 million tons. It is expected that in 2026, exports will decrease by 0.6% to 10.18 million tons, and imports will increase by 3.9% to 6.65 million tons [8]. - As of early December 2025, the prices of coke and coking coal in the circulation field declined [8]. Energy and Chemicals - The National Energy Administration will strengthen energy supervision and ensure the safety of the energy and power system in 2026 [9]. - Hungary signed a 5 - year LNG procurement agreement with Chevron for a total of 2 billion cubic meters [9]. - Last week, US API crude oil inventories decreased by 9.322 million barrels, exceeding expectations [9]. - The price discount of Venezuelan Merey crude oil widened to a $21 - per - barrel discount compared to Brent crude oil [9]. - JP Morgan will seek about $14 billion in funds for Argentina's LNG export project [9]. Agricultural Products - The Indian market regulatory body will propose to relax commodity derivatives rules, cancel the ban on agricultural product derivatives trading, and reduce margin requirements [10]. - As of December 14, 2025, EU's 2025/26 soft wheat exports were 10.5 million tons, barley exports were 5 million tons, corn imports were 7.5 million tons, and soybean meal imports were 8.3 million tons [10]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On December 16, 2025, the central bank conducted 135.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 18 billion yuan [11]. Key News - In 2026, expanding domestic demand is the top priority, and efforts will be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. The real estate market will be stabilized from both supply and demand ends [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to stabilize bulk consumption, improve the social security system, and promote a fair market order [12]. - Shenzhen will prevent and resolve financial risks, support the reform of the GEM, and enhance the competitiveness of the capital market [13]. - In 2026, the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and maintain financial market stability [13]. - The market expects the fiscal deficit rate in 2026 to be no less than 4% [14]. - BofA Securities expects the downward trend of the mainland real estate market to bottom out in 2026 [14]. - Vanke will hold a bondholder meeting to discuss the adjusted extension plan for "22 Vanke MTN004" [14]. - On December 16, 2025, the on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar reached new highs in 14 months, and the RMB is expected to appreciate moderately in 2026 [15]. - As of December 16, 2025, commercial banks issued 58 green financial bonds, with a total issuance scale of 458.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of over 202% [15]. - The EU plans to issue about 90 billion euros in bonds in the first half of 2026 [15]. - The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the US economic outlook, expecting a 3.5% GDP growth in 2025 [16]. - In November 2025, the US added 64,000 non - farm jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [16]. Bond Market Review - Bond market sentiment improved slightly. Yields of major inter - bank interest - bearing bonds mostly declined slightly, and Treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend [19]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, Vanke bonds generally rose, and the Wande Real Estate Bond 30 Index rose 0.58%, while the Wande High - Yield Urban Investment Bond Index fell 0.06% [19]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.72% to 478.64 points, with a trading volume of 55.556 billion yuan [20]. - On December 16, 2025, most money market interest rates rose, and Shibor short - term varieties showed a differentiated performance [20][21]. - Inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds generally declined, and silver - silver inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds showed a differentiated performance [21]. - The winning yields of Agricultural Development Bank's 2 - year financial bonds were 1.5899% and 1.6039% respectively [22]. - Most European and US bond yields declined [22]. Foreign Exchange Market - On December 16, 2025, the on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 80 points, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar rose 54 points [23]. - In New York, the US dollar index fell 0.06%, and most non - US currencies showed mixed performance [23]. Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income believes that in November 2025, external demand improved, prices rose, but domestic demand continued to bottom - seek. It is recommended to wait for opportunities in the bond market [24]. - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that in November 2025, the economy was weak in both production and demand. The bond market is expected to stabilize and start a trend - like market in the second half of the first quarter of 2026 [25]. - CICC Fixed Income believes that the November 2025 economic data was below expectations, and the bond market is expected to perform well in 2026. It is recommended to pay attention to the allocation opportunities from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [25]. - CITIC Securities believes that the November 2025 economic data declined in both supply and demand. Policies in 2026 will be more coordinated and focused on implementation effects [26]. - Changjiang Fixed Income believes that the net investment of repurchase in December 2025 decreased. The money market may face some fluctuations due to tax payments [26]. - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that credit bond ETFs should focus on product returns and consider individual bond attributes in portfolio selection [27]. 4. Stock Market Key News - On the day, the A - share market declined unilaterally, with nearly 4,300 stocks falling. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.11% to 3,824.81 points, and the market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.54% to 25,235.41 points, and the trading volume decreased slightly [29]. - Multiple institutions believe that Chinese assets have the basis for a continuous rebound in 2026, and overseas long - term funds have been flowing into the Chinese stock market since 2025 [30].