工业硅：逢高做空为主，多晶硅：部分企业报价抬升，关注实际成交

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for industrial silicon is to short on rallies [1] - For polysilicon, some companies have raised their quotes, and attention should be paid to actual transactions [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides detailed fundamental data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, spot prices, profits, inventories, and raw material costs [2] - It also presents macro and industry news, such as the power supply situation and electricity consumption forecasts [2][4] - The trend intensities of industrial silicon and polysilicon are given, with -1 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: Si2605 closing price is 8,365 yuan/ton, with a change of -655 compared to T - 22; PS2605 closing price is 58,600 yuan/ton, up 570 from T - 1 [2] - Basis: Industrial silicon spot has different premiums or discounts against different benchmarks, and polysilicon spot has a discount against N - type re - investment material [2] - Prices: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 52300 yuan/ton [2] - Profits: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 2919.5 yuan/ton and - 5344 yuan/ton respectively; polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.0 yuan/kg [2] - Inventories: Industrial silicon social inventory is 56.1 tons, enterprise inventory is 18.7 tons, and industry inventory is 74.8 tons; polysilicon factory inventory is 29.3 tons [2] - Raw Material Costs: The prices of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are provided, with little change in most cases [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - This year, the national power supply has remained safe and stable, and the annual social electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kWh [2][4] - In 2025, the national total power generation installed capacity will exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts, a 14% year - on - year increase, and the social electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kWh for the first time [4] 3. Trend Intensities - Industrial silicon trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view; polysilicon trend intensity is 1, indicating a bullish view [4]