集运日报：部分班轮公司报价不及预期，盘面止涨转跌，盘面震荡上行，符合日报预期，已建议全部止盈。-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - The market's optimism has diminished, some liner companies' latest quotes are below expectations, and the market fluctuated downward under the game between long and short positions. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Freight Index - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European - line price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2] 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, slightly lower than the October data of 52.5 and remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service - sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half [2] - The Eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [2] - In November, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business climate improved. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and it fell below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [3] - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Services PMI was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.6 [3] 3.3 Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On December 16, the main contract 2602 closed at 1686.8, with a decline of 1.62%, a trading volume of 27,800 lots, and an open interest of 32,500 lots, a decrease of 582 lots from the previous day [3] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounds after a pullback, and the volatility of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to try to go long on the main contract with a light position, and all positions have been advised to take profits. It is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions, and stop - losses should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international geopolitical turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: Each contract has been advised to take profits when the price rises to a high level, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the price to stabilize after a pullback [4] 3.5 Contract Rules Adjustments - The price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening - position limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4]