宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年12月17日）-20251217

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is to oscillate and consolidate. In the short - term, the probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is insufficient upward momentum. In the medium - to long - term, there are still expectations of a loose monetary policy, and the futures have strong support. [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Time - based View - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view is oscillating and consolidating. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there are still long - term loose expectations. [1] - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and consolidating. [5] Core Logic - In the medium - to long - term, the monetary policy environment tends to be loose, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still expected. Currently, the market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, so Treasury bond futures have strong support. [5] - In the short - term, the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is small, so there is no need for an interest rate cut this year, and Treasury bond futures lack short - term upward momentum. [5] - From the supply - demand perspective, the current internal and external uncertain risk factors are weak, the market risk - aversion sentiment is not strong, and there is a certain supply pressure for long - term bonds in the first quarter of next year, so the prices of long - term bonds are suppressed to some extent. [5]