新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-17）-20251217

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [4] - SSE 50: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Logs: Bottom oscillating [6] - Pulp: Oscillating [7] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [7] - Soybean oil: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Palm oil: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [7] - Live pigs: Stronger [9] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: Weakly oscillating [11] - PTA: Weakly oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market features "ample supply, low demand, and rising port inventories." In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. Current molten iron production is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. Steel exports with licenses will limit exports, negatively impacting raw materials. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - The coal and coke market was affected by the lack of incremental policy information from the Central Economic Work Conference. Steel export licensing will limit exports, shifting market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, year - end coal mine production cuts, and long - term anti - involution strategies support coal and coke prices [2]. - The steel market is affected by export licensing, and expectations for next year's steel exports need to be lowered. The real estate new construction has fallen to 2005 levels, and domestic demand remains weak. Steel prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2]. - The glass market has seen a recent decline in prices in the Shahe area. Processing orders are sluggish, and demand is insufficient. Although the inventory of float glass sample enterprises has decreased, it is still up by over 20% year - on - year. The demand outlook is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion, and whether the price can stop falling depends on the cold - repair progress [2]. - In the financial market, the previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to boost domestic demand, and the Central Financial Office emphasized expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year. The high - tech industry continues to grow, and the market is in short - term consolidation with a continued medium - term trend [4]. - The gold market's pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the US dollar's credit, and gold's de - fiat currency attribute is prominent. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases support gold prices in the medium and long term, while the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term influencing factors [6]. - The log market has seen a decrease in daily port shipments and national daily out - warehouse volume. The volume of New Zealand's log shipments to China in November decreased by 3% compared to the previous month. Although the expected arrival volume this week has increased significantly, the supply pressure may gradually ease due to the seasonal decrease in shipments. The demand is not weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - The pulp market has a differentiated spot price. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. After the digestion of positive factors, the price may return to an oscillating trend based on the supply - demand fundamentals [7]. - The oil market has high US soybean crushing levels, but the uncertainty of renewable energy blending obligations and weak exports have led to uncertain demand prospects. The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased significantly, and the inventory is high. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, so the oil price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [7]. - The meal market has a relatively loose global soybean ending inventory. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans is increasing. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is stable, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - The live pig market has a stable overall supply, and the slaughter rate has increased slightly. The terminal demand growth is limited, and there is a game between supply and demand. The average weekly price of live pigs is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9]. - The rubber market has different production situations in different regions. The demand side has a certain degree of recovery, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - The polyester market is affected by the decline in oil prices. The supply of PX is high, and the demand for PTA is seasonally weakening. The long - term inventory pressure of MEG exists, and the polyester bottle - chip and polyester fiber markets are also under pressure [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is ample, demand is low, and port inventories are rising. In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons. Current molten iron production is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. Steel export licensing will limit exports, negatively impacting raw materials. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2]. - Coal and coke: Affected by the lack of incremental policy information, the market shifted expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, year - end coal mine production cuts, and long - term anti - involution strategies support prices [2]. - Rolled steel: Export licensing affects exports, and expectations for next year's steel exports need to be lowered. Real estate new construction has fallen to 2005 levels, and domestic demand is weak. Prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2]. - Glass: Prices in the Shahe area have declined. Processing orders are sluggish, and demand is insufficient. Although inventory has decreased, it is still up by over 20% year - on - year. The demand outlook is dragged down by real estate completion, and the price trend depends on cold - repair progress [2]. - Soda ash: Similar to the glass market, affected by supply and demand and cold - repair progress [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to boost domestic demand, and the Central Financial Office emphasized expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year. The high - tech industry continues to grow, and the market is in short - term consolidation with a continued medium - term trend [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond was flat, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 1.8 billion yuan. The bond market is in a short - term rebound trend [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the US dollar's credit, and gold's de - fiat currency attribute is prominent. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases support prices in the medium and long term, while the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term influencing factors [6]. - Silver: Similar to gold, oscillating with an upward bias [6]. Light Industry - Logs: Daily port shipments and national daily out - warehouse volume have decreased. The volume of New Zealand's log shipments to China in November decreased by 3% compared to the previous month. Although the expected arrival volume this week has increased significantly, the supply pressure may gradually ease due to the seasonal decrease in shipments. The demand is not weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices are differentiated. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. After the digestion of positive factors, the price may return to an oscillating trend based on the supply - demand fundamentals [7]. - Offset paper: The spot price is stable. Some production has resumed in Shandong, and supply pressure remains. Demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: High US soybean crushing levels, but the uncertainty of renewable energy blending obligations and weak exports have led to uncertain demand prospects. The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased significantly, and the inventory is high. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, so the oil price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [7]. - Meals: A relatively loose global soybean ending inventory. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans is increasing. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is stable, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The overall supply is stable, and the slaughter rate has increased slightly. The terminal demand growth is limited, and there is a game between supply and demand. The average weekly price of live pigs is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Different production situations in different regions. The demand side has a certain degree of recovery, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. Polyester - PX: Market concerns about future supply surplus are obvious. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease, and oil prices have fallen. The supply is high, and the price is affected by oil prices [11]. - PTA: The cost side is loosened due to the decline in oil prices. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the industry is seasonally weakening. The price is expected to follow the cost side in the short term [11]. - MEG: There is long - term inventory pressure, and the short - term situation has improved due to supply reduction. The price is expected to oscillate with upward pressure [11]. - PR: Affected by the decline in oil prices and general demand, the polyester bottle - chip market may continue to be weak [11]. - PF: Although the current price of polyester staple fiber is low and the enterprise inventory is low, the large decline in oil prices may lead to price oscillation in the near future [11].