煤炭月度供需数据点评：11月：煤价环比上涨，反内卷初心未变-20251217

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Leading the Market" with expectations of exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [1][42]. Core Insights - In November, coal prices experienced a month-on-month increase, although the overall trend indicates a return to a downward trajectory after a period of price recovery driven by power plant restocking [7]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing macroeconomic goal of reversing deflationary trends, suggesting that the coal sector's supply is temporarily excessive and that demand needs to be released for a balanced recovery [7]. - The report highlights that while there are concerns about recent price declines, the commitment to reversing deflation remains a key policy direction, indicating potential support for coal prices if they fall to low levels [7]. Supply and Demand Summary - Supply: From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of raw coal reached 4.402 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with November's output at 427 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% but a month-on-month increase of 4.93% [4]. - Demand: The terminal demand for coal has been on a downward trend, with fixed asset investment from January to November 2025 decreasing by 2.6%. Specific sectors such as real estate saw a significant decline of 15.9% [5]. - Import: Coal imports in November showed a month-on-month decline, with a cumulative import volume of 432 million tons from January to November 2025, down 12.0% year-on-year. November's imports were 44.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.88% but a month-on-month increase of 5.55% [5]. Price Analysis - In November, coal prices exceeded expectations with significant month-on-month increases across various coal types, including Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal and other metallurgical coals [6]. - The seasonal price trends for coal in 2025 align with those of previous years, indicating a pattern of "not-so-weak off-season" and "not-so-strong peak season" [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on profit recovery, especially with the onset of cold weather supporting demand. There are expectations for performance improvement in Q4, and if prices remain high, there is substantial room for earnings recovery in 2026 [8]. - Specific stocks to watch include Shanxi Coal International, Jinko Coal Industry, and Huayang Co., among others in the thermal and coking coal sectors [8].