宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025年12月17日）-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term and may maintain a strong run due to increased market risk - aversion as the macro - environment weakens. In the medium - term, it will be in a volatile state, and in the long - term, it has shown a high - level volatile trend since late October. [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term. Although it is under pressure in the short - term due to decreased market risk preference and liquidity, it is supported by downstream replenishment demand and low LME inventories. [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Short - term: The short - term view is bullish. After the macro - environment took a turn for the worse since last Friday, overseas stocks and commodities generally declined, and the short - term liquidity of gold decreased significantly. The impact of the interest - rate meeting has been fully digested, and the market's risk - aversion demand has risen rapidly, so the price of gold may maintain a strong run. [1][3] - Medium - term: The medium - term view is volatile. Since late October when Sino - US relations eased, the price of gold has been in a high - level volatile state, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the $4400 mark. [3] - Intraday: The intraday view is volatile and bullish. Yesterday, the price of gold in the Asian session fluctuated downward and then rose and fell back at night. The US non - farm payroll data last night was mixed, and the short - term fluctuation of gold was not obvious. [3] Copper - Short - term: The short - term view is volatile. Yesterday, the price of copper in the Asian session decreased with reduced positions, dropping nearly 2000 yuan/ton from the high. The market risk preference and liquidity decreased, putting pressure on the copper price. However, it is relatively resistant in the non - ferrous sector due to its strong financial attributes. [1][4] - Medium - term: The medium - term view is bullish. As the copper price drops, the downstream replenishment willingness in the industry increases, and the low LME inventories strongly support the copper price. [1][4] - Intraday: The intraday view is volatile and bullish. The long - short game has intensified, and the copper price shows a pattern of being strong overseas and weak in China. Attention can be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average. [4]