建筑装饰行业周报（20251208-20251214）：重视春季躁动行情-20251217

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The focus is on the start of the "15th Five-Year Plan" in 2026, with the construction sector expected to experience a "spring rally." Overall infrastructure investment in 2025 remains weak, with growth rates at low levels. However, conditions for marginal improvement in investment rhythm may arise in the first quarter of 2026, catalyzing sentiment and orders for the sector [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Five-Year Plan Impact - The five-year plan significantly influences infrastructure investment rhythms, showing a clear "high at the front, stable at the back" pattern in recent cycles. Historically, infrastructure investment growth in China has exhibited stable phase characteristics, with the first half of the plan often seeing concentrated project launches and relatively high growth rates, while the latter half tends to stabilize [3][10]. 2. Investment Recovery Patterns - Historical data indicates a "low base - next year recovery" pattern for first-quarter infrastructure growth. For instance, in 2025, the broad infrastructure fixed asset investment growth rates for January-February and March are 9.95% and 12.59%, respectively. However, excluding the impact of power investment, the narrow infrastructure growth rates are only 5.60% and 5.94%, marking the lowest in five years. The expectation for 2026 is that the first quarter may naturally recover due to the low growth base in 2025 [4][12]. 3. Provincial Project Disclosures - In the first quarter of the "14th Five-Year Plan," multiple provinces are expected to disclose significant plans for communication, comprehensive transportation, water conservancy, and major infrastructure projects, which will significantly catalyze the infrastructure industry chain. For example, provinces like Sichuan and Chongqing have set ambitious investment targets for the "14th Five-Year Plan," which will lay the groundwork for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][10]. 4. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.74%. The construction decoration index dropped by 1.59%, with sectors like landscaping engineering and municipal engineering showing positive growth [6][25]. 5. Company Announcements - Several companies in the construction sector have reported significant project wins, including major overseas contracts and domestic infrastructure projects, indicating a robust pipeline of work that supports future revenue growth [19][20].