（LL&PP）：20251216申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures stopped falling and rebounded. On the spot side, linear LL prices from Sinopec remained stable, while some prices from PetroChina were lowered by 150. For拉丝 PP, prices from both Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. Previously, the market was driven down by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, leading to a lower valuation of polyolefins. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the pace of digestion of upstream supply and demand, and the future domestic consumption potential [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of LL for January, May, and September were 6522, 6557, and 6583 respectively, with increases of 46 (0.71%), 71 (1.09%), and 64 (0.98%) compared to the day before. For PP, the closing prices were 6178, 6254, and 6277, with increases of 49 (0.80%), 86 (1.39%), and 66 (1.06%) [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 131615, 458385, and 5952 respectively, and the open interests were 150173, 488788, and 9185. The open interest changes were -33948, 9111, and 310. For PP, the trading volumes were 271855, 478514, and 9946, and the open interests were 219370, 486544, and 24484, with open interest changes of -73814, 43232, and 4180 [2] - Spreads: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -35, -26, and 61 respectively, compared to previous values of -10, -33, and 43. For PP, the current spreads were -76, -23, and 99, compared to previous values of -39, -43, and 82 [2] Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2128 yuan/ton, 6065 yuan/ton, 609 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6040 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2103 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 603 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6000 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - Midstream: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6550 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6750 (8100 - 8250) yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, 6050 - 6200 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6350 yuan/ton respectively, and the previous price ranges were 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, 6000 - 6150 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton [2] News - On Monday (December 15), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $56.82 per barrel, down $0.62 (1.08%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $56.40 - $57.80. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $60.56 per barrel, down $0.56 (0.92%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.13 - $61.50 [2]