集运日报：部分班轮公司报价不及预期，盘面止涨转跌，盘面震荡上行，符合日报预期，已建议全部止盈-20251217

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Due to the possible decline of market optimism and the latest quotes of some liner companies falling short of expectations, the market fluctuates downward. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Indexes - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - The euro - zone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than the October data of 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half [2]. - The euro - zone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous value of - 7.4 [2]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with improved business conditions. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [3]. - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global services PMI was 55, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.6 [3]. 3.3 Market Conditions and Strategies - On December 16, the main contract 2602 closed at 1686.8, down 1.62%, with a trading volume of 27,800 lots and an open interest of 32,500 lots, a decrease of 582 lots from the previous day [3]. - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounds after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to go long on the main contract with a light position, and all positions have been advised to take profit. No further position - adding or holding losses is recommended, and stop - losses should be set [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: All contracts have been advised to take profit when rising, and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin for these contracts has been adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].