国新国证期货早报-20251217

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 16, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.11% to 3,824.81, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.51% to 12,914.67, and the ChiNext Index decreased 2.10% to 3,071.76. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.7242 trillion yuan, a decrease of 49.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - CSI 300 Index: It was weak, closing at 4,497.56, a decrease of 54.51 [2] 2. Futures Market 2.1 Energy and Chemicals - Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index continued to rebound, closing at 1,599.0, a rise of 18.8. The environmental protection restrictions in production areas have been basically lifted, and coke enterprises have resumed normal production. However, terminal demand is poor, steel mills' maintenance is increasing, and iron - water production is declining, weakening the rigid demand for coke [2][4] - Coking Coal: The weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1,049.2 yuan, a rise of 13.5. Near the end of the year, supply is tight due to production task completion and other factors, but Mongolian coal imports are increasing. After the sharp drop in spot prices, downstream procurement increased slightly, but the continued price reduction of coke limited the release of downstream demand [3][4] - Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar) - The Zheng Sugar 2605 contract declined significantly on December 16 due to factors such as the decline in US sugar and the reduction of spot prices. As of December 15, India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season increased by 28.33% year - on - year to 77.9 million tons, and Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of December increased by 19% compared with the daily average in December last year [4] - Rubber - Shanghai Rubber fluctuated narrowly. In October 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production increased by 11.4% compared with September, and the inventory decreased by 8.9% [4] - Palm Oil - The palm oil futures price continued to be weak on December 16, with the main contract hitting a new low. From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% compared with the same period last month [5] - Asphalt - The asphalt 2602 main contract fluctuated downwards, with a decline of 2.36% and a closing price of 2,894 yuan. The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, inventory reduction slowed down, and demand was weak in both the north and the south, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [6] 2.2 Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybeans were weak. Brazil's soybeans are in the growing season with favorable weather, and the market is worried about the decline in US soybean export demand. Domestically, the M2605 main contract rose 0.69% to 2,777 yuan/ton on December 16. Although the supply of imported soybeans is abundant and the oil mills' operating rate is high, the news of extended customs clearance time for imported soybeans has relieved the supply pressure [5] - Live Pigs - The LH2603 main contract rose 0.4% to 11,350 yuan/ton on December 16. The supply of live pigs is abundant, but the marginal improvement in consumption is relatively mild. The market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5] 2.3 Metals - Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2601 contract closed at 91,840 yuan/ton on December 16. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 9.75% year - on - year, and it is expected to increase by 5.96% in December. The demand for copper products is mixed, and inventory changes vary in different markets [5] - Iron Ore - The iron ore 2605 main contract rose 1.06% to 761 yuan on December 16. The supply of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is increasing, the arrival volume has rebounded, and the port inventory is accumulating, while the iron - water production is decreasing, showing a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand [6] - Steel - On December 16, rb2605 closed at 3,081 yuan/ton and hc2605 at 3,246 yuan/ton. The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, but the black futures market's rise has repaired some of the pessimistic expectations [6] - Aluminum - The al2602 contract closed at 21,845 yuan/ton on December 16. The macro - market sentiment is cooling, the supply is stable, and the demand is weakening [6] - Alumina - The ao2601 contract closed at 2,541 yuan/ton on December 16. The supply is in excess, but the price decline may be limited due to corporate losses and potential industry integration [6] 2.4 Others - Logs - The log 2601 contract opened at 753, with a low of 749, a high of 763, and closed at 761.5 on December 16, with a reduction of 1,531 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6] - Cotton - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13,970 yuan/ton on the night of December 16. The cotton inventory increased by 33 lots, and textile enterprises purchase as needed [5]