中辉能化观点-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Short on rebounds [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is easing, and the oil market is in an oversupply pattern, leading to a bearish outlook on oil prices. Cost - related factors are dragging down the prices of LPG, L, PP, etc. Some products have short - term supply - demand imbalances and inventory issues [1][9]. - For some chemical products like PTA, EG, and methanol, supply - demand changes, cost support, and inventory trends are the main factors affecting their prices. Urea has a complex supply - demand situation with both domestic and international factors at play [3]. - Natural gas prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply and weakened demand support. Asphalt prices are affected by cost and seasonal demand factors. Glass and soda ash markets are facing supply - demand imbalances with high inventories [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with WTI down 2.94%, Brent down 2.71%, and SC down 1.14% [7][8]. - Basic Logic: Geopolitical support for oil prices is decreasing as the Russia - Ukraine situation eases. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and global and US inventories are increasing [9]. - Fundamentals: Russia's oil production in November increased slightly. The IEA predicts an increase in global crude oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil and product inventories showed mixed changes in the week ending December 5 [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and oil prices are in a low - price range. Technically, the trend is weak. It is recommended to partially close short positions, with SC focusing on the range of 415 - 430 [11]. 3.2 LPG - Market Performance: On December 16, the PG main contract closed at 4210 yuan/ton, up 1.40% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed slight changes [12][13]. - Basic Logic: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, which is in a downward trend. Supply has increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience, but MTBE blending demand has decreased. Inventory has increased [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and LPG prices still have room to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions, with PG focusing on the range of 4150 - 4250 [15]. 3.3 L - Market Performance: The L05 closing price decreased slightly, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed [17]. - Basic Logic: Falling oil prices, weakening basis, and high production rates limit the rebound space. Supply is sufficient, the peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventory is increasing slightly [19]. - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread, with L focusing on the range of 6450 - 6600 [19]. 3.4 PP - Market Performance: The PP05 closing price increased, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed significantly [21]. - Basic Logic: Weak demand support, weakening basis, and high inventory limit the rebound space. In December, demand enters the off - season, and the industry chain still faces high inventory - reduction pressure [23]. - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Consider going long on PP processing fees or short on MTO05, with PP focusing on the range of 6200 - 6300 [23]. 3.5 PVC - Market Performance: The V01 closing price increased, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed [25]. - Basic Logic: North American plant shutdowns led to a rebound in the market, but the basis weakened. Supply - demand surplus persists until there are concentrated mid - and upstream maintenance. Some northwest self - supplied calcium carbide plants are losing cash flow [27]. - Strategy Recommendation: Treat it as a short - term rebound. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for continuous inventory reduction before going long, with V focusing on the range of 4300 - 4450 [27]. 3.6 PTA - Market Performance: Futures and spot prices of PTA changed slightly, and basis and spreading prices also had some fluctuations [28]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side processing fees are low, and many domestic and overseas plants are under maintenance. Downstream demand is currently good but expected to weaken. Cost support is weakening, and there is an expected inventory build - up in January [29]. - Strategy Recommendation: Given the low valuation and processing fees, consider going long on the 05 contract on dips, with TA05 focusing on the range of 4610 - 4670 [30]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Market Performance: Futures and spot prices of EG changed, and basis and spreading prices also had fluctuations [31]. - Basic Logic: Domestic and overseas plant loads have decreased. Downstream demand is currently good but expected to weaken. There is an expected inventory build - up in December, and it lacks upward drivers [32]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds, with EG05 focusing on the range of 3730 - 3800 [33]. 3.8 Methanol - Market Performance: No specific market performance data is emphasized, but it is mentioned that the Taicang spot price is weakening [36]. - Basic Logic: The port inventory is decreasing, but the supply - side pressure still exists. Domestic plants are increasing production, while overseas plants are reducing production. Demand is slightly weakening, and cost support is weakening [36]. - Strategy Recommendation: The methanol 05 contract is expected to be weak, with the downward space being limited [38]. 3.9 Urea - Market Performance: Futures and spot prices of urea changed, and basis and spreading prices also had fluctuations [39]. - Basic Logic: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strengthening. Supply pressure is expected to ease in mid - to - late December. Demand is currently good but not sustainable. Inventory is decreasing but still at a high level [40]. - Strategy Recommendation: Cautiously avoid shorting. Consider going long on the 05 contract, with UR01 focusing on the range of 1615 - 1640 [42]. 3.10 Natural Gas - Market Performance: On December 15, the NG main contract closed at 4.012 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 2.46% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed [43][44]. - Basic Logic: Although it is the consumption peak season, the relatively mild weather in the US has weakened demand support. Gas prices have reached a high level in recent years, and supply is relatively sufficient [45]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of 3.860 - 4.239 US dollars per million British thermal units. The demand has some support, but gas prices are under pressure [45]. 3.11 Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 16, the BU main contract closed at 2891 yuan/ton, down 2.07% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly [46][47]. - Basic Logic: Cost - side factors are negative, and it is the consumption off - season. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is relatively high [48]. - Strategy Recommendation: Partially close short positions due to the increasing uncertainty in South American geopolitics. Pay attention to the range of 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton [49]. 3.12 Glass - Market Performance: The FG05 closing price decreased slightly, and basis and spreading prices changed [51]. - Basic Logic: Supply reduction is insufficient under weak demand. Production capacity remains stable, and demand is weak. Inventory is high although it has decreased for three consecutive weeks [53]. - Strategy Recommendation: Partially close short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short, with FG focusing on the range of 1110 - 1150 [53]. 3.13 Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA05 closing price increased, and basis and spreading prices changed [55]. - Basic Logic: The market rebounded with reduced positions. Supply is expected to be loose with a planned new plant coming into operation. Demand support is insufficient [57]. - Strategy Recommendation: Partially close short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short, with SA focusing on the range of 1150 - 1200 [57].