中辉农产品观点-20251217

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings and Core Views - The investment ratings for various futures varieties are as follows: soybean meal - short - term consolidation; rapeseed meal - short - term rebound; palm oil - short - term consolidation; soybean oil - short - term oscillation; rapeseed oil - range oscillation; cotton - oscillation with an upward bias; red dates - weak operation; live pigs - rebound and short - sell [1] - The core view for soybean meal is that although the Sino - US soybean purchase has started, the poor US soybean export data is bearish for the US market sentiment. The improved rainfall in South America means there is a lack of bullish drivers. The domestic soybean meal inventory has improved on a week - on - week basis but is still high year - on - year. Supply in December is expected to be sufficient, and the spot price is relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating market [1][4] - For rapeseed meal, the coastal oil mills have zero inventory and zero crushing of rapeseed, and low imports. However, the port inventory is still high year - on - year, and the spot is reducing inventory by lowering prices. There is no significant change in fundamentals expected. It follows the trend of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the follow - up progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1][7] - Regarding palm oil, Malaysia's palm oil export data in the first 15 days of this month decreased month - on - month. The government's expectation of inventory accumulation in December is bearish for market sentiment. Due to the expected entry into the production - reduction season in Southeast Asia, short - selling operations should be treated with caution. Attention should be paid to short - long opportunities after the adjustment stabilizes, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating in December [1][9] - For soybean oil, the domestic soybean oil inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month but is still higher than the five - year average. The improved South American weather and the lack of positive data from the palm oil side lead to a bearish adjustment. Attention should be paid to the previous low - level technical support, as well as the South American weather and the progress of the US biodiesel policy [1] - In the case of rapeseed oil, the current zero - start of coastal oil mills, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November, along with the continuous decline in port inventory. However, the diversification of imports such as Australian and Russian rapeseed, as well as the global and Canadian rapeseed harvests, may limit the upside space of prices. It is operating weakly, and attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the follow - up progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1] - For cotton, the US cotton harvest is nearing the end, and Brazil has started the new - season planting. The proportion of weather - related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to oscillate at the bottom. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, but the sales progress has significantly slowed down. There is a need to be vigilant against short - term callback risks. In operation, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to short - long opportunities after the callback and the long - term moderate recovery opportunities under the supply narrative [1][13] - Regarding red dates, at the end of the acquisition, the spot price increase has slowed down the downward trend. With the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, the market volatility increases. The high inventory still exerts significant pressure on the price rebound. In a situation of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. On the disk, most of the premium caused by speculation of a large - scale reduction in new - season red dates since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The short - selling trend on the disk has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. In a cooling market, attention should be paid to short - term rebound opportunities at the bottom [1][17] - For live pigs, as the Winter Solstice approaches, the concentrated release of live pig slaughter is expected. Although the demand indicators such as fresh sales and slaughter have improved, the increase in supply is likely to exceed the increase in demand, so the short - term upward driving force of pig prices is limited. With the late Spring Festival this year and the increase in the second - fattening of pigs, even if the Winter Solstice expectations are disappointed, the inventory in December is difficult to clear effectively, and the price will still be under pressure in January. For contracts, the 01 contract is only 12 trading days away from the delivery month, and it is likely to oscillate weakly under the delivery logic. For the 03 contract, in the absence of an unexpected spread of diseases, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For the 0911 contracts, due to the divergence between the reduction expectation and capacity reduction, short - long positions can be taken at low prices for now [1][20] Group 2: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - As of December 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.162 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 208,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.3615 million tons. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.3948 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 239,600 tons (3.35% increase) and a year - on - year increase of 1.3807 million tons (22.96% increase). The soybean meal inventory was 1.0969 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,000 tons (5.59% decrease) and a year - on - year increase of 456,700 tons (71.34% increase). The physical inventory days of soybean meal for 50 feed enterprises in the main regions of the country was 9.13 days, an increase of 0.64 days from the previous period and 1.05 days from the same period last year [3] - The current oil mill operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level of about 59%. The soybean meal inventory has increased significantly year - on - year, and the oil mills are pushing for提货. The downstream has high basis costs for purchases from December to January and is showing resistance to price drops [3] - The futures price (main contract daily closing) of soybean meal is 2,777 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3,154.57 yuan/ton, a 0.01% increase from the previous day. The soybean crushing profit has a national average of - 63.4304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.38 yuan from the previous day. The basis of different contracts has also changed [2] Rapeseed Meal - As of December 12, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 0 tons, all remaining the same as the previous week [7] - The rapeseed meal market is full of a wait - and - see attitude. The market players are generally cautious in taking goods. The current market is oscillating, and the future trend is unclear. Downstream enterprises are mainly focused on risk control and replenishing inventory as needed, while the trading side is taking small quantities and turning over flexibly [7] - The futures price (main contract daily closing) of rapeseed meal is 2,359 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2,497.89 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease from the previous day. The rapeseed spot crushing profit has decreased significantly [5] Palm Oil - As of December 12, 2025 (week 50), the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 652,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons (4.53% decrease) and a year - on - year increase of 113,500 tons (21.05% increase) [9] - From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 2.55% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in November were 632,300 tons, a 4.97% increase from October. Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 were 613,172 tons, a 15.89% decrease from the same period last month [9] - The futures price (main contract daily closing) of palm oil is 8,410 yuan/ton, a 0.97% decrease from the previous day. The national average aggregated price is 8,488 yuan/ton, a 1.34% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume has changed, and the inventory has decreased [8] Cotton - Internationally, in the US, the cotton harvest is ending, and over 1.5 million tons of new cotton have been inspected. In India, the daily new cotton listing volume is between 16,000 - 20,000 tons, and nearly 42,500 tons have been purchased under the MSP, but rainfall in late November in the south and central regions was unfavorable for MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and non - main producing areas have started sowing 2026 new cotton, with the main producing areas expected to have heavy rainfall by the end of November [11] - Domestically, new cotton picking is basically completed, and the inspection volume has exceeded 5.4 million tons. The sales progress has significantly slowed down, with only a 0.2% increase to 41.6%. The national total production has been revised up by 260,000 tons to 7.68 million tons. The cost of new - season lint cotton is basically locked between 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. In October, the imported cotton resource volume was 223,000 tons, almost the same as the previous month and 13,500 tons higher than the same period [12] - The futures prices of different cotton contracts have changed slightly. The spot price has increased slightly. The spinning profit of textile enterprises has increased, and the inventory has increased. The downstream demand has shown some changes [10] Red Dates - In terms of supply, the acquisition in some regions has ended, and the acquisition in other regions is nearing the end. The prices in the production areas are weakening. The inventory of 36 sample points has increased to 15,790 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,880 tons and 2,848 tons higher than the same period [16] - In terms of demand, the trading in the Cui'erzhuang market is mainly for new products, and the downstream's enthusiasm for taking goods has increased. The Ruyifang market has general demand [16] - The futures prices of different red date contracts have decreased. The spot prices of different varieties have remained basically unchanged. The basis and inventory have changed [14] Live Pigs - In the short term, in November, the breeding side actively slaughtered pigs, with fierce competition. The large - scale enterprises had high slaughter pressure, and their overall plan completion was not ideal. The planned slaughter in December has increased by 3.2%. Under pessimistic expectations, small - scale farmers, contract - farming companies, and previously second - fattened pigs are more willing to sell. The daily slaughter of large - scale enterprises has slightly decreased, but the large - scale slaughter pressure still limits the spot performance. The spread between standard and fat pigs has widened recently, and there has been some second - fattening entry behavior [19] - In the medium term, the number of newly - born piglets in November decreased by 76,200 to 5.7031 million. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows in October decreased to 39.9 million, and it is initially expected that the reduction target of 39.5 million tons will be basically completed by the end of the year, corresponding to high slaughter pressure at the end of the year [19] - The demand side is gradually turning into a situation of both supply and demand booming with the increase in pickling and enema activities in the southwest and other regions. However, the supply narrative may still be the dominant factor [19] - The futures prices of different live pig contracts have changed slightly. The slaughter price, basis, and various inventory and demand indicators have also changed [18]