对二甲苯：成本坍塌，估值回落，PTA：估值回落，MEG：计划外降负荷改善累库压力，下方短期有支撑

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: With a significant drop in crude oil prices and a comprehensive weakening of polyester demand, there's a need to be cautious of the negative feedback from an unexpected decline in polyester operation rate. PX should not be chased at high prices. The current concentration of polyester industry chain profits in the PX segment is based on the relatively high operation rate of polyester, but the weakening demand will limit the upside of PX. The blending oil logic has ended, and the short - process profit has reached a new high, making it difficult to support PX valuation. PX supply and demand are tight. It is recommended to operate in the 6550 - 7000 range, exit the 5 - 9 positive spread, and close the long PX and short PTA/BZ positions [6]. - PTA: Although the cost - end PX supply and demand are tight, polyester is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses. There may be a negative feedback in the industry chain due to potential production cuts, so the upside of PTA is limited. It is recommended to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range, exit the 5 - 9 positive spread, and close the long PX and short PTA/BZ positions [7]. - MEG: The price of 3600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production facilities, leading to some plants' operational shutdowns and a slight improvement in the supply - demand pattern. The 01 contract should not be shorted. Low profits have led to a widespread decline in plant operation enthusiasm. The supply - demand balance sheet of ethylene glycol has slightly improved [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: A 260,000 - ton PX plant in Japan restarted as planned last weekend after a shutdown for maintenance in early October. The naphtha price fell in the late trading session. On December 16, the PX price dropped, with a March Asian spot deal at 828. The PX valuation on December 16 was 827 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars from the previous day [4]. - MEG: A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi postponed its restart by half a month. A 600,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Sichuan restarted and produced output recently. A 450,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down recently, and the restart time is undetermined [4][5]. - Polyester: A 250,000 - ton polyester plant in Wujiang plans to shut down for maintenance around mid - January and restart after the Spring Festival. On December 16, the sales of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarns had partial volume increases, with an estimated average sales rate of 5 - 60% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers declined on December 16, with an average sales rate of 46% by 3:00 pm [5]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1 - PTA trend intensity: - 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [5] Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6744 | 4668 | 3788 | 6106 | 430.6 | | Change | - 40 | - 28 | 137 | 8 | - 5.9 | | Change Rate | - 0.59% | - 0.60% | 3.75% | 0.13% | - 1.35% | | Month Spread | PX1 - 5 | PTA1 - 5 | MEG1 - 5 | PF12 - 1 | SC11 - 12 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 54 | - 60 | - 88 | - 54 | - 2 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 54 | - 68 | - 78 | - 70 | - 0.2 | | Change | 0 | 8 | - 10 | 16 | - 1.8 | | Spot | PX CFR China (USD/ton) | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent (USD/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 827.33 | 4594 | 3636 | 535.62 | 60.2 | | Previous Day's Price | 832.67 | 4615 | 3640 | 545.75 | 61.4 | | Change | - 5.34 | - 21 | - 4 | - 10.12 | - 1.2 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 282.92 | 174.56 | 256.44 | 123.25 | - 4.23 | | Previous Day's Price | 281.42 | 185.2 | 271.42 | 116.31 | - 4.34 | | Change | 1.5 | - 10.64 | - 14.97 | 6.95 | 0.11 | [2]