Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-17 02:45Group 1 - The global Fab market is expected to grow by 27% year-on-year in 2025, driven by demand from GPU/ASIC and consumer electronics orders [3][9][23] - The advanced process is in an expansion phase, significantly boosted by AI demand, with the Chinese high-end AI chip market projected to grow over 60% in 2026 [3][23][26] - Domestic Fab manufacturers are focusing on mature processes, benefiting from the recovery of the domestic market, with a projected share of over 75% in global mature process capacity additions by 2026 [3][46][53] Group 2 - Key companies to watch include SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Jinghong Integrated Circuit, which are positioned to benefit from local manufacturing and the expansion of production capacity [3][41][71] - The third phase of the National Big Fund has not yet entered large-scale project investments, but it is expected to become a capital expenditure increment for the Fab industry in 2026 [3][39][40] - The domestic supply chain is gradually proving itself, with companies like Cambrian and Huawei leading the way in local AI chip production and supply chain development [3][30][34]