华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251217

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Views - For成材: The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, causing the price center of gravity to continuously shift downward. It is expected to be in a state of shock consolidation. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. - For铝锭: With macro - easing support, the domestic off - season approaching, and inventory trends being volatile, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. High prices have a large inhibitory effect on consumption. Attention should be paid to macro guidance and news from the ore end [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog 成材 - Production and Supply: In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, and the resumption of production is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on the total construction steel production of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5th, most of the others will stop production around mid - January, and individual ones are expected to stop production after January 20th, with a daily impact on production of about 16,200 tons [3][4]. - Sales and Market: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2%. The price of finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. The winter storage this year is rather sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4]. 铝锭 - Macro Environment: On Tuesday, the data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in November reached 64,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, both higher than market expectations, and the market sentiment has gradually cooled down compared with the previous period [3]. - Fundamental Situation: The alumina market currently continues the pattern of oversupply. The supply has increased driven by the resumption of production of some enterprises, and the downstream inventory has further accumulated to 4.933 million tons, with increasing inventory pressure. The domestic weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8% week - on - week, continuing the weak operation in the off - season. As of December 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 596,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 1,000 tons compared with last Monday [4].