黑色建材日报：环保限产扰动，钢价震荡运行-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each product, the strategies suggest a "sideways" movement: - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron ore: Sideways [2][3] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [3][4] - Thermal coal: The report does not provide a clear strategy but indicates a weak price trend [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall market of black building materials is affected by multiple factors such as environmental protection production restrictions, seasonal production cuts, and changes in supply - demand relationships. Each product shows different supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and most products are in a state of price fluctuations. 3. Summary by Product Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,081 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,246 yuan/ton. The spot trading volume of steel was average. The low - price transactions in the morning were good, but there were few transactions after price increases, and the basis shrank. The national building materials trading volume was 99,186 [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: For building materials, there is no significant production pressure currently, and inventory is continuously decreasing. For plates, high inventory continues to suppress prices, but demand resilience remains. In the short term, the supply side is affected by environmental protection and seasonal production cuts, and raw material support may weaken [1]. - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The iron ore 2605 contract closed at 761 yuan, up 0.92%. Spot prices rose slightly, but trading volume was low. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills maintained on - demand restocking, with purchase prices mostly following the market [2]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The demand side of iron ore is currently weak. The steel product market has weak supply and demand, and steel mills' production enthusiasm is not high under the state of small profits, resulting in a continuous decline in hot metal production. Although the demand is weak, the iron ore price remains high due to the tight supply of some varieties at ports and weak liquidity, temporarily covering up the supply - demand contradiction. In the future, as steel mills start seasonal production cuts and are affected by environmental protection production restrictions, hot metal production is expected to further decline. If the port resource liquidity improves, combined with the fundamental supply - demand contradiction, the iron ore price will face significant downward pressure [2]. - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures continued the previous pattern of sideways and slightly stronger, and continued to rebound slightly. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume remained high, port inventory continued to accumulate, prices fluctuated with the market, and downstream market procurement was cautious, with limited overall trading activity [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Coking coal currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Coal mines are mainly operating with low supply, and supply has slightly shrunk. Downstream coke has the expectation of further price cuts, and enterprises' enthusiasm for restocking is average, mostly for on - demand procurement. Coke also faces pressure on both supply and demand. Supply has slightly declined, and on the demand side, some steel mills are undergoing maintenance and production cuts, and the winter storage restocking plan has not yet been launched, with a relatively light trading atmosphere in the market [4]. - Strategy: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the producing areas, the coal prices in the main producing areas continued to run weakly. Downstream demand was mainly for on - demand hauling, and speculative demand was weak. Most coal mines sold at reduced prices, but sales did not improve, and mine inventory accumulated. At ports, affected by the continuous weakness in the producing areas, port quotes continued to decline. Some traders were extremely pessimistic about the future market, and the phenomenon of selling at a loss intensified. Currently, port inventory is high, the number of anchored ships is small, and the turnover rate has not increased. Traders at ports generally have a pessimistic attitude, believing that the current decline is large and there is still an expectation of further decline in the future. In terms of imports, affected by domestic coal prices, the tender price of imported coal continued to decline, and the market trading atmosphere was cold [4]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Recently, coal prices have continued to run weakly, with downstream consumption falling short of expectations and relatively high inventory. Some coal mines have completed their annual tasks, so it is difficult to have significant improvement in supply in the later period. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, as well as coal consumption and restocking [5]. - Strategy: The report does not provide a clear trading strategy but mentions factors such as coal mine safety supervision dynamics, port inventory accumulation changes, daily consumption of thermal coal and chemical coal, and other unexpected accidents that need to be concerned [5]